Speculation have been rife in the media, particularly social media, as to whether Xi Jinping the Chinese President has been placed under house arrest by the Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA). Rumors of a coup have been going around in the social media, but there is no official or unofficial confirmation of the coup or any disturbance in China so far.
The fact that Xi not being seen in public for some time, and military vehicles have been seen moving towards Beijing the Chinese capital and cancellation of passenger flights in parts of China have been some of the mains reason behind these speculation.
Recent media reports indicate – a widespread and growing dissent against Xi in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the military. Some of the other reasons behind this unrest include tumbling Chinese economy, faltering of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and public anger against many of Xi Jinping’s policies which have led to avoidable skirmishes with India in the Galwan valley, escalating tension in Taiwan, human rights violations in Xinjiang, as well as the housing and loan repayment fiasco. Xi’s zero-Covid Policy, and stance on the Russia’s special military operations in Ukraine, have been some of the other reasons.
Unconfirmed news reports have hinted at the possibility of a military coup in China and Xi being placed under house arrest reportedly due to an 80-km long tank column seen to be moving towards Beijing. News reports from Pakistan talking about Xi Jinping’s house arrest have in particular being considered the gospel truth mainly because Pakistan is a honeyed chum of Beijing. The news of thousands of flights being cancelled across China is also connected to the possible military coup. Interestingly, there has been speculation that CIA operatives have infiltrated in the circles of power in Moscow and Beijing to cause instability and target the leaders in both these countries.
No doubt, there is dissent against Xi Jinping in China, but this (public against the leadership) is something common in most countries of the world. Washington will certainly be thrilled if Russian President Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping too are assassinated and done away with but spreading such rumours is part of information warfare – as is evident from the Western lies about the ground situation in Ukraine. However, Xi is perhaps more methodical and cruel than Satan himself.
The Chinese history is full of examples how the CCP only grew stronger despite millions of Chinese people being killed in purges and revolutions over the decades.
On the face of it, military coups are unlikely virtually impossible in China mainly because the People’s Liberation Army comes under the Central Military Commission. Xi Jinping, heads the CMC as the General Secretary of the Communist Party. The People’s Liberation Army reports to the party, not the government.
The combination of Xi Jinping’s ideology (or rather lack of it) together with his anti-corruption campaign has helped so far to ruthlessly remove dissenters from the scene. But isn’t this happening in most countries to retain power? If there is a slowdown of the Chinese economy, so is the case globally. In June 2022, China’s current account recorded a surplus of USD 80.2 billion. FDI in China increased by USD 47.7 billion and China’s Direct Investment Abroad expanded by USD 32.7 billion. Compare this to America’s external debt at USD 23,930.4 billion in March 2022.
Speaking at a study session ahead of the 95th anniversary of the founding of the PLA Xi had said, “We must lay emphasis on political integrity when cultivating, evaluating and appointing personnel, so that the party’s absolute leadership over the military is implemented in the whole process of personnel work”, adding that the “armed forces must always be led by reliable people who are loyal to the Party.”
Under China’s military service law, all Chinese males aged between 18-22 years have to enroll as conscripts and have to do compulsory military service. The conscripts have to serve for three years in the army, or four years for the navy and the air force. Xi is understood to have been wanting to completely restructure the PLA in his next term, and planning to conduct a series of workshops on China’s strategic goals, and training sessions to make the army a “secure career with strong prospects”. It is not clear whether Xi wanted to increase the conscription tenure or change to regular cadre in the military. China does have a problem with its 2-3 children policy not taking off and is learnt to be recruiting Tibetans and Nepalese for operations against India.
In addition to being the President and head of the CCP, Xi is also the Chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), the overall high command of the PLA. Since he took over the leadership in 2012, Xi has been regularly insisting on the PLA functioning under party leadership. No matter how much the world talked of free Tibet and human rights violations in Xinjiang, it did not matter to the CCP and Xi managed to ruthlessly steamroll the democratic noises in Hong Kong and reverse the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ policy.
Xi prepared the PLA for an invasion on a life-size model of Ladakh in Tibet’s interior five years ago. Though India managed to regain control over 1,000 sq km of territory in Eastern Ladakh without firing a single bullet in 2020, China continues to accuse India of aggression. Moreover, Xi established Chinese villages on Indian, Bhutanese and Nepali soil as forward posts of the PLA. Denials of Chinese intrusions by these countries provided the stimulus for Beijing to create more mischief.
Delivering a talk on July 28, Xi said “The public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this. The US should honour the one-China principle.” Following the visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, many US and European delegations visited Taiwan.
Xi is aware that the US and EU don’t have guts to not honour the one-China principle. Joe Biden was quoted as saying that the US would defend Taiwan but the issue is whether Washington will support Taiwan more than how it is defending Ukraine – by making money from selling arms or from reconstruction of the country devastated in war as a follow up bonanza? Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan provided China the opportunity to rehearse possible invasion of Taiwan.
Xi and Putin held their first in-person meeting on September 15 since the Ukraine conflict. The China-Russia relationship has become much stronger despite the US propaganda of a rift between the two. Xi naturally wants a world where China can expand its interests without any economic or military pressure from the US. Its support to Russia, both direct and indirect, is inevitable especially in response to US moves against Russia in Ukraine. Notably, French President Emmanuel Macron is not for conflict with China similar to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
If Xi Jinping has been placed under house arrest, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi would not be calmly talking of ‘one China’ at the 77th UNGA meet and saying that any talk of independence in Taiwan will not be tolerated. US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken separately warned Wang Yi about the consequences of supporting Russia’s actions in Ukraine and stressed that maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is critical to regional and global security and prosperity. Earlier, Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of the Center for China and Globalization had said that the Chinese people are grateful to Vladimir Putin for supporting China on the Taiwan issue.
Seemingly the spin about rising instability in China which may or may not be true might have been doctored by disgruntled CCP officials. It could also be a strategic diversion created by Xi for some action to coincide with the 20th Congress of CCP in October 2022. In all probability, Xi Jinping would be crowned as the ‘Peoples’ President’ at the 20th Congress — at par with Mao Zedong.
-The writer is veteran Special Forces of Indian Army. He can be contacted at prakashkatoch7@gmail.com. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
The author is an Indian Army veteran. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
