“….To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill….“
Sun Tzu, ancient Chinese Military thinker
Technology and revolutions in military affairs (T- RMAs) have heralded an era of military conflicts without soldiers striking each other physically. Weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), coupled with weapon systems having effective kill-ratio beyond visual ranges (BVR), have transformed the war from physical contact of soldiers and weapons to “Non-Contact Warfare” (NCW).
At times, such a warfare is defined as either “Grey Zone” or even “Hybrid”. However, these definitions might not be sufficient to describe emerging shape of polemical engagements amongst mutually hostile nations. Wars are being “customised” to serve a particular purpose. Their domain would vary from economics to politics or even to space and water. Aided by BVR weapons systems, future wars would be “Designer Wars”.
Alvin Toffler, author of ‘War and Anti-War’, would have defined the emerging scenario as a transformation from “Brute Force Wars “ to “Brain Force Wars”. A look at the T- RMAs would tell one as to how not only the weapons of physical destruction but also command and control systems have taken a quantum jump. The use of “ brain” rather than of “brute strength” is the key feature of modern wars. The era of “smart soldiers” with self – guiding “smart weapons” is taking war- making system into a new horizon of “invisible arena”.
Yes, wars of the future would be “invisible” and fought in different dimensions and fronts . “Bio-Warfare” is one of the dimensions of a large canvass of “Invisible” wars. VIRUS was the new soldier of an “unknown enemy”. It advances unchallenged and goes romping everything that resists its move forward. Tanks, guns, nukes and hordes of fighter aircrafts are incapable of stopping its advance.
Corona virus (Covid-19) has shown that it would have “No Front” and “No Rear”. In almost two years, since January 2020, it has accounted for over 6 million people worldwide and is still raging unabated. Enemy is known but yet unknown for the nations to act against. Economies of the various nations were crippled and most nations are still panting to come out of it. More deadly viruses than corona are in the cradle of many a “bio – laboratories” of the world.
Laser Weapons, such as EMP (Electromagnetic pulses) guns can play havoc in the battle field. Cyber Warfare can not only damage command and control systems but also disrupt communications. It can interfere with the avionics of fighter aircrafts and guidance systems of missiles. Swarm Technology has added a new dimension to kill- potential of the targets. Battlefields would be ruled by quality of weapons and not numbers and quantity.
High-Tech driven BVR weapon systems have brought in a qualitative change in the three areas of war making. These are range, accuracy and lethality. This has impacted the doctrines of modern wars in two ways :—
a) Emphasis of Land warfare has shifted to WOM (War by other Means), where you exploit internal vulnerabilities of the enemy by making use of“Irregular Soldiers”. Land war will therefore be limited to“Designer Conflicts”, where there would be no more MONKEY DANCING by the armies across the borders. At best, it will be confined to border skirmishes .Therefore, there was a need for the armed forces to be structured and reorganised to deal with this kind of land war. “Smart Weapons” and “Irregular Soldiers” would play an important role in the “Designer Land Wars” of the future . They would be protracted conflicts with “No Fronts” and “No Rears”.
b) Driven by High Tech and Mass Destruction Weapon Systems, mankind will upgrade from“Land Wars” to“Space Wars”. Deep into the future, Battle Zones are going to be in the space . There will be rush for land grabbing on the moon and other planets. The focus of the modern conventional war is shifting to Seas & Space. Therefore Naval forces and Air Force would get priority over the Land forces. In view of this importance of Stand-Alone Weapon Systems attain significance. These are A- SAT, Anti-Missile ( S-400), Drones, Missiles, Swarm weapon systems , Aircraft carriers, Nuclear Submarines, Laser Killers, Long Range Artillery with perfect accuracy and deadly lethality as well as modern aircrafts.
Two Chinese Air force Colonels, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiang Sui, wrote a handbook
“Warfare Beyond Bounds” in 1999, which caught the attention of the world and in 2004, it was published as “Unrestricted Warfare”. The book is a treatise on use of unconventional means to defeat one’s adversary. This book emphasises that rather than focusing on direct military confrontation, it is advisable to use other means to defeat a technically superior adversary. It is in fact a doctrine on the use of “invisible means” to subdue one’s opponent. This is in line with what Sun Tzu had propagated centuries ago.
Deadly lethality, precise accuracy and ranges beyond visual ranges of emerging weapon systems has enlarged the scope of combat zones with “No Front – No Rear”. It is not limited to geography and territory. Brawn is being replaced by brain, thus, changing the very profile of soldiers. Technical knowledge would be the key feature of future soldiers than physical robustness.
Principles of war, such as “concentration of forces”, ought to give way to “Dispersal”. Similarly, strong fixed defences would no more be invincible. Mobility would be the key feature of “border defences”. Hitherto known doctrine of “boots on ground” to hold or deny territory to enemy would give way to UGS (underground sensors). Use of AI (Artificial Intelligence) and EW (Early Warning) systems, along with invisible means to cause unacceptable attrition to attacker would redefine the land warfare to mere “border skirmishes”. Capture or defence of territory would no more be the focus but the total annihilation of the enemy.
In conclusion, one would like to note what Alvin Toffler observed in his book , “War and Anti-War”. To quote him,”…..If war was ever too serious a business to be left alone to Generals, then, today, it is all the more serious to leave it to uninformed, uninitiated and unaware, whether in uniform or otherwise….“.
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
