The sabre rattling by China on the Taiwan Strait following the visit of speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei has escalated tensions in the region. In the past few months, there have been regular incidents of Chinese violations of Taiwanese air and maritime space but these were treated as instances of the normal bullying tactics of China. But the visit of Pelosi even in the teeth of dire warnings by the Chinese authorities has handed over to China on a silver platter the opportunity it was waiting for – a pretext to escalate military action to come closer to its ultimate objective of annexing Taiwan. Its designs are clear from the identification of the six zones from where China has been launching its military tirade against Taiwan, even firing ballistic missiles, some of which have landed in the EEZ of Japan. In a tense situation like this, the possibility of something going horribly wrong and war breaking out in the region could be real.
The purpose behind Speaker Pelosi’s visit is not clear especially since the US military authorities had advised against it and the Whitehouse was anything but enthusiastic about her visit. But the speaker, for reasons best known to herself, chose to stick to her programme dismissing the possible repercussions. For Pelosi, in the twilight years of her political career, proving a point and slighting China seemed to be the most visible reason for the visit. But what impelled her to take such a risk and give a pretext to China remains in the realm of speculation. But the fact remains that the host country has had to bear the brunt of China’s anger.
Speaker Pelosi clarified that there was no change in the ‘One-China’ policy of the US and that her intention was not to undermine the status quo. But this does not seem to have placated the Chinese authorities as they interpreted the visit as an open challenge to China’s professed sovereignty over Taiwan. Leave aside the fact that China itself has the least respect for the sovereignty of other countries. Its unilateral actions on the India -China border or in the South China Sea challenging the sovereignty of countries like Japan, the Philippines or Vietnam or its open cooperation with Pakistan helping it to build infrastructure in Gilgit Baltistan speak eloquently of China’s open disregard of the sovereignty of other countries.
The events in Europe have only emboldened China to pursue aggressive policies vis- a -vis Taiwan and openly indulge in military exercises calculated to intimidate Taiwan. Xi Jinping’s eye on a third presidential term and his overweening ambition to be in the hall of fame, on an equal footing with Mao, by donning the hat of a unifier are decidedly the factors that are currently fuelling China’s aggression against its neighbour. Russia’s naked aggression against Ukraine and its success in occupying the Donbas region although at a great cost have shown the world that authoritarian nations could pursue revanchism with impunity with the help of a nuclear umbrella. While Ukraine’s cities got pulverized and their inhabitants fled for safety, even the promise of a regular supply of military equipment could not be redeemed by the NATO powers. What Russia could do to damage Ukraine’s nuclear plants in the conflict zone and engineer a nuclear disaster would have a far-reaching impact on Europe. The NATO powers’ preoccupation with the Ukraine crisis has taken the focus away from the Indo- Pacific. It has also led to Russia’s close partnership with China and its presumed support for any unification effort This has definitely encouraged China to take recourse to strong-arm tactics against Taiwan and Pelosi’s visit has provided the ammunition for this.
China will be restrained only by a single factor namely an open conflict with the USA. But the ambiguity that the US has maintained in respect of its readiness to enter an open conflict with China has been a key factor in maintaining the status quo on Taiwan. But the US defence establishment had not endorsed President Biden’s indications that the US would not hesitate to get involved. So if China goes all out to invade Taiwan, that country may be in the unenviable position of being left to fend for itself. But militarily Taiwan will not be able to withstand a Chinese attack although it may be able to put up stiff resistance with its tech-savvy armed forces about which much has been written. But in a war situation, its arms supply lines could be totally cut off unless its naval force could keep supply lines open by keeping the large and well-equipped PLA Navy at bay which is very unlikely unless the US enters such a war. Supply by air will be nearly impossible unless the Taiwanese air force maintains dominance over its air space. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could spell serious trouble for the rest of the world as Taiwan is a key player in the semiconductor industry. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) which controls nearly 53% of the Chip manufacturing in the world could fall into China’s control seriously disrupting manufacturing all over the world with China tightening its stranglehold on the world supplies. The same fate awaits other high-tech industries like electronics. The recent announcement of President Biden of allocating a USD 50 billion fund for chip manufacturing within the US is probably an acceptance of this eventuality. US will be heavily dependent on China for chips and China could spell serious trouble for the US industry.
Even if China brings Taiwan under its control it may be too much to expect a ‘One-China, Two Systems’ policy allowing Taiwan the freedom to practise democracy. The world has seen the strangling of democratic freedoms in Hongkong with brutal state force and its replacement with authoritarian control from Beijing on the plea that the western countries were attempting to use Hongkong as an epicentre for inflaming internal dissensions in China to undermine the Chinese system from within. Therefore the Chinese regime will look upon the ‘Two Systems’ policy as highly detrimental to its own internal security. China’s unilateral actions in the South China Sea and its utter disregard for the international opprobrium that it has engendered are part of Xi Jinping’s master plan for reunification.
India will be faced with opportunities and threats if China were to invade Taiwan. If the semiconductor industry falls into China’s hands the dependence of the world on China will be total and this will provide a huge strategic advantage to China, a prospect that will be very unnerving for many, given the leverage that it will give China, a notorious arm twister. Such tactics played a major role in enabling China to access cutting-edge technology from leading companies all over the world doing business with it. Many US companies which sought huge profits by moving their operations to China had to give Chinese industry access to their closely held technologies. It was only President Trump’s whip-lashing against China that controlled this haemorrhage of know-how to China. India’s recent effort to promote semiconductor industries in the country by announcing a USD10 billion production-linked incentive is a much-awaited step toward achieving strategic self-reliance in Chip production and design. India has excellent chip design talent but this talent is outsourced to the rest of the world through advanced research facilities of multinationals in India. Indian engineers innovate but the intellectual property goes abroad. We need to harness our abundant talent to keep designing IPRs within the country. But much more needs to be done. It is one thing to be a manufacturer of chips through foreign collaboration but another thing to be in possession of the technology. It is also necessary to get a foothold in manufacturing high-end, high-performing chips to gain a strategic edge. Mission mode R&D efforts are required to make headway in this direction.
China’s belligerence on India’s eastern borders is also born out of its revanchism. Any success in Taiwan will reinforce the idea of ‘reconquering’ territories that are now integral parts of India. Apart from compelling China to come to the negotiating table to settle the border dispute, India needs to be strategic in its approach to taking advantage of the ‘China Plus’ policy of the advanced countries for securing supply lines by having alternate manufacturing locations. India has to pursue an aggressive policy in getting strategic Industries relocated to India from China. Close cooperation within the QUAD will be essential for this.
Strengthening India’s naval force in the Indian Ocean region is of paramount importance. Besides acquiring state-of-the-art intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, expanding India’s submarine fleet is of crucial importance. The P75 (I) project which is yet to take off should be taken forward without further delay and accelerated. Although some of the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) participating in the bids floated under the strategic partnership policy have left the scene those from Spain and South Korea are ready to collaborate. Our R&D efforts in Unmanned Combat Areal Vehicles (UCAVs) and autonomous weapon systems, and quantum communications need a leapfrogging. Make in India in defence should accord high priority to reducing India’s dependence on Russian equipment.
Equally important is the need to revive the reforms stalled by the tragic demise of the former CDS Gen Bipin Rawat. Posting his successor cannot brook any further delay. The theatre commands formation is again crucial for the armed forces to focus on the right type of capability building. No less important is the setting up of a non-lapsable fund for boosting capability building.
–The writer is a former Defence Secretary. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
