New Delhi: Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated following the April 22 terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, which left 26 people dead, most of them tourists. India has accused Pakistan of supporting the groups responsible for the attack, a charge Islamabad denies.
In response, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a long-standing agreement governing the sharing of the Indus River and its tributaries, which had survived multiple wars and was seen as a stabilising factor in bilateral relations.
Amidst this heightened atmosphere, Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia, Muhammad Khalid Jamali, issued one of the most explicit nuclear threats in recent years. In an interview with Russian broadcaster RT, Jamali claimed that Islamabad possesses credible intelligence indicating that India is planning imminent military strikes on Pakistani territory.
He warned that Pakistan would respond with the “full spectrum of power, both conventional and nuclear,” if attacked or if India attempts to disrupt Pakistan’s water supply.
Jamali further described India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as an “act of war,” stating that any attempt to divert or stop the flow of water would be met with the full force of Pakistan’s military capabilities, including nuclear weapons. This rhetoric was echoed by Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, who threatened to target any Indian infrastructure built on the Indus in violation of the treaty, reiterating that aggression could take many forms, including actions that could lead to deprivation and suffering.
In a show of military readiness, Pakistan conducted a test launch of the Abdali surface-to-surface missile, capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear payloads with a range of 450 kilometres. The Pakistani army stated the launch was meant to ensure operational preparedness. India viewed this as a grave provocation, though there has been no official response from its Ministry of External Affairs.
Diplomatic and economic relations have further deteriorated. India imposed a ban on imports of goods originating from or transiting through Pakistan and barred Pakistani ships from Indian ports. Pakistan reciprocated with similar restrictions. The two countries also suspended postal exchanges and closed the Attari-Wagah land border crossing, effectively freezing bilateral trade and people-to-people contact, which had already been severely limited since 2019.
Both nations possess significant nuclear arsenals-estimated at around 170 warheads each-and have developed sophisticated delivery systems. India maintains a “no first use” nuclear doctrine, pledging to use nuclear weapons only in retaliation, while Pakistan reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first, particularly if it perceives an existential threat. Pakistan’s doctrine of “full-spectrum deterrence” includes the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons to counter conventional military threats from India.
Despite the gravity of the current crisis, both countries have historically engaged in limited strikes and counterattacks, often allowing for de-escalation before a full-scale conflict erupts. However, the explicit nuclear warning from Pakistan’s top diplomat marks a significant escalation in rhetoric and raises the risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
