Ayatollah Khamenei, supreme leader of Iran has been killed in the Israel/US air strikes on February 28, 2026. Allegedly, this operation was named “Roar of the Lion”. Death of Khamenei has been officially confirmed by Iranian media and 40 days mourning has been declared in Iran. It seems Khamenei supporters are still in control of the country and they have assured “revenge”, for his killing.
In a counter attack, Khamenei proteges in Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have targeted eight other countries in the Middle East, where USA has its military bases. These are Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan etc. But a question remains: Will Iran, post- Khamenei, be peaceful? It is doubtful, unless IRGC fully surrenders or is totally dismantled. They ought to be physically eliminated, if Iran is expected to be stable and normal.
Something more than air strikes or missiles attack has to be done before IRGC could be totally dismantled. This entails physical presence. Will US/Israel put “boots on ground” to dismantle IRGC — which is mandatory to neutralise brainwashed cadres with unquestioned loyalty to Khamenei? It would be a Herculean task, even if there was the local support. Only time will answer these questions. I doubt whether Iran would be stable hereafter.
In certain quarters, some analysts link this surprise attack on Iran by Israel/USA to Afghan-Pakistan border war. Surprisingly, these so-called analysts lay blame on India for inciting Afghan Taliban to engage Pakistan as a diversionary tactics
In certain quarters, some analysts link this surprise attack on Iran by Israel/USA to Afghan-Pakistan border war. Surprisingly, these so-called analysts lay blame on India for inciting Afghan Taliban to engage Pakistan as a diversionary tactics. This thought process is nothing but trash. Why would India do it? What does it gain from it? If the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while in his recent visit to Israel, had quipped that India stood with Israel, it was nothing but a factual statement. Don’t expect Indian prime minister to say that India was anti-Israel, while on a visit to that country? More so, when Israel has always supported India through thick and thin.
I don’t think Afghan-Pak war was a diversionary strategy at the behest of India —though India fully supports Taliban. In any case, Pakistan’s virtual ruler, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is fully sold-out to Trump. Thus, Pakistan is not expected to do anything other than a rhetorical criticism of Israel.
However, it is a figment of imagination that Afghan-Pak war was started at the behest of India. It is likely that the inference was drawn from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s open support to Israel during his recent visit to the country. His statement in the Israeli Knesset that India stands with Israel might have led to this assumption. The statement was made to reject terrorist acts against Israel. It was not a call to Israel to wage a war against Iran.
One must understand that Pakistan has already been neutralised by President Trump through his openly displayed “love” for his beloved Field Marshal, who has promised him the return of the Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan to the USA. President Trump has openly stated that he wants this airbase back
One must understand that Pakistan was already neutralised by President Trump through his openly displayed “love” for his beloved Field Marshal, Asim Munir. Remember, what Trump had quipped when a journalist asked Trump to stop the Afghan-Pak war? He had remarked that he won’t do anything to stop the ongoing Pak-Afghan war because Field Marshal (Asim Munir) was doing an “excellent job”.
The so called “Excellent Job” was the promise of return of the Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan to the USA. President Trump has openly stated that he wants this airbase back. Sure, Munir had made this commitment – the reason for Pakistan to carry out air strikes in Afghanistan to provoke Taliban— which led to the Taliban’s reaction. Therefore, Field Marshal Asim Munir has an indirect role in US/Israel attack on Iran. Don’t forget that the wave of 200 fighter jets might have flown over Pakistan to strike Iran.
Why did Israel and USA choose a “day time attack” on February 28, 2026? Amongst other sources, Israel depends on its HUMANINT – which is excellent. It is now turning out that in the wake of rising clouds of war — Ayatollah Khamenei had called a meeting of 40 senior military and IRGC leaders on February 28, 2026. This bit of intel from Mossad agents in Iran provided a golden opportunity to Israel. However, based on the past experience, Iran did not expect a day time attack from Israel. It was the surprise element of Operation “Roar of the Lion”. Israel exploited this golden opportunity. Afghanistan-Pakistan war was not the factor as assumed and linked to India.
In the aftermath of this, will India get a chance to stand tall amidst the ruins of a collapsed old world? Profile of the future might repeat the post Second World war scenario, when British Empire, where sun never set, collapsed into a “Third Rate Country”. What will happen to the current unipolar world? Only time will tell
So, the question is, what now? Iran may become another destabilised nation like Iraq or Syria. The “Lava of Instability” might flow towards Pakistan. If Pakistan falls to instability, does it offer an opportunity to India to do a “la- Bangladesh”? Time will answer this.
But if West Asia was destabilised, would South Asia be left far behind? It is not an alarmist view but a peep into the likely future. It is an earnest visualisation of the geopolitics of the globe under a ‘Strategic Transformation’!
In the aftermath of this, will India get a chance to stand tall amidst the ruins of a collapsed old world? Profile of the future might repeat the post Second World war scenario, when British Empire, where sun never set, collapsed into a “Third Rate Country”. What will happen to the current unipolar world? Only time will tell.
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
