War clouds were hovering over the Strait of Hormuz in Gulf since mid-January 2026. Two nuclear powered aircraft carriers, USS Abraham Lincoin and USS Gerald Ford had already reached the Indian Ocean and were on high alert.
US military bases in Prussian Gulf States i.e. UAE, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Kuwait were fully activated. Israel Defence Forces were fully mobilised. The several rounds of negotiations and meetings were held between the American and Iranian delegations in Oman to defuse the ignition.
The main agenda of USA and Israel was to neutralise the nuclear threat from Iran and secondary objective was the change of radical anti-US Islamic regime of Iran. IAEA has collected data from its monitoring agency that Iran had enough fissile enriched uranium to manufacture 8-10 Nuclear bombs of I0 kilotons each.
The Iranian stand was that their nuclear programme was for peaceful purposes only and purely of non-military nature.
But it refused any inspection of its nuclear facilities by any US-led team of IAEA scientists stating that it was violation of its sovereignty.
If we go back in time, Iran and USA, who were allies during the regime of Shah of Iran till 1978 suddenly drifted apart once Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, an orthodox Islamic theologian, allegedly led Jehadi groups, ignited a revolution and dethroned the monarch Shah Mohmad Raza Pahalwi.
Iran prior to the Islamic revolution was pro-American and most liberal of Islamic nations, society was open, women had equal rights and at liberty to the western dresses and etiquette. However, after 1980, the country withdrew into a shell. It imposed Sharia laws and Hijab was made compulsory for the women. All conservative customs were imposed and moral policing was strictly observed, in the largest Shia population state of the Islamic world.
Iran is well endowed with large oil reserves, rich natural resources and strategically located on the Northern side of the Persian Gulf and controls the Strait of Hormuz, a 30 km long and 3 km wide choke point on Gulf’s entrance, which isolated it from Oman Sea and onwards to Indian Ocean through the Arabian Sea.
Iraq was a strong country in Gulf region and kept a check on Iran due to the traditional rivalry being neighbouring state with conflicting interests. Iran and Iraq fought a then years long war from 1979 to 1988.
In Iraq, the Baath party ruled from 1968 onwards. Although, 60% of the Iraqi populations is Shia, but its former president Saddam Hussain was a Sunni. He took over from Ahmed Hussain as president of Iraq in 1979.
During his tenure, Iraq grew stronger militarily. He started a war with Iran in 1980 which ended in 1988. Saddam challenged and bullied other oil producing small Gulf countries, too. It captured Kuwait in 1990 and occupied its rich oil fields.
Iran prior to the Islamic revolution was pro-American and most liberal of Islamic nations, society was open, women had equal rights and at liberty to the western dresses and etiquette. However, after 1980, the country withdrew into a shell. It imposed Sharia laws and Hijab was made compulsory for the women. All conservative customs were imposed and moral policing was strictly observed, in the largest Shia population state of the Islamic world
The US-led allied forces launched ‘Operation Desert Storm’ and liberated Kuwait in 2003. Saddam Hussian was killed and Iraq’s capital Bagdad was turned to ruins. Iraq slowly faced a civil war and insurgency under ISIS-led terrorists.
With Iraq now out of the regional race for supremacy, Iran became stronger and leader of the Islamic world, challenging the supremacy of Saudi Arabia as leader of Islamic countries.
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, appointed Ali Khamenei as the next supreme leader of Iran, endorsed by the 25-member constitutional reform council. Akbar Rafsanjani was elected as the President, who developed a network of supporters in Army and religious foundations.
Khatami the next Iranian president, was a moderate and improved relations with Europe. In 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was sworn-in as president, who was considered to be an hardliner and anti-Israel, USA and Saudi Arabia. Hassan Rouhani was elected as the new Iranian president in 2013.
During this era, Iran grew as a military and economic power with support of Russia. Russia supplied SU 24/27 fighters, T-55 tanks, and artillery guns. Meanwhile, China too supplied HQ 9B AD system and SAMs to Iran.
Iranian Armed forces strength grew to a 10-lakh strong army, including Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which is directly under supreme commander. It thus became a strong military nation in West Asia.
Since the arrival of Trump 2.0, Iran was on the hit list of both the USA and Israel. It was confirmed by intelligence sources that Iran was on threshold of making a nuclear bomb which was a new and direct threat to Israel
Meanwhile, it perused a purportedly peaceful nuclear programme but covertly also carried out Uranium enrichment to produce weapon grade Uranium. A Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCAP) was initiated by the P5 countries and Germany to impose sanctions on Iran if it does not stop Uranium enrichment.
Iran apparently agreed to the diktat but covertly carried-on and almost achieved nuclear threshold. President Trump’s Administration 1.0 withdrew from the JCAP in 2019. In 2020. Mossad/CIA assassinated IRGC Commander Qasim Solemini. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on a US base in Iraq.
In Jan 2020, a Ukraine Airlines aircraft was shot down in the Iranian Air space killing 146 on board. Ebrahim Raisi became the new president in 2020. He was considered to be a hardliner and pro-Russia. He restored Uranium enrichment programme again. Iran also initiated developing supersonic missiles with the Russian support, with range of 1800 kms and also developed UAVs and kamikaze armed drones.
On October 7, 2023, Israel was struck by terrorist attack of the most unprecedented nature led by Hamas, in which 1,219 Israeli citizens and foreign tourists were killed in Gaza and 261 Israelis were made hostages.
‘Operation Epic Fury’ was initiated at the first light of the day on February 28, 2026. Mossad had gathered valuable intelligence that the Supreme Leader Ali Khameini will be addressing his top IRGC and military commanders along with the Iranian defence minister at 0900 at IRGC Headquarters, in Tehran. CIA also confirmed the input
Subsequently, the Israel Defence Force (IDF) launched a counter attack on Gaza and destroyed Hamas bases. Israel blamed Iran for arming and funding Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
In April 2024, Israel carried out a missile attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria, in which top IRGC commander was killed. President Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in Oct 2024. Meanwhile, President Masoud Pezeshkian was elected as the next Iranian president. Iran carried out retaliatory attacks on Israel in Oct 2025 with 180 plus missiles and UAVs.
Since the arrival of Trump 2.0, Iran was on the hit list of both the USA and Israel. It was confirmed by intelligence sources that Iran was on threshold of making a nuclear bomb which was a new and direct threat to Israel.
The Israel Air force launched air strikes against Iran on June 13, 2025 and bombardment continued for 12 days on Iran missile bases and nuclear weapon sites, but the nuclear facilities were unaffected as they were built deep inside underground silos.
Operation Midnight Hammer was unleashed on June 22 by USAF B-I stealth bombers against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities located at Fordow, Nantz and Isfahan. It was presumed that the Iranian capability of developing nuclear bombs was neutralised but it was reported that nuclear material had been shifted and hidden safely at alternative sites and capability for enrichment still exists.
A ceasefire was announced on June 24, 2025. In Dec 2025, mass demonstrations were triggered in all over Iran by Gen Z and women against the Iranian regime. IRGC troops retaliated with force to supress the violent protests.
Iran was in state of shock and grief at the great loss of its head of state. US President commented that we have achieved our objective and it was time for Iranian public to seize opportunity and change the radical regime in-power since 1979
It was reported by the Western media that about 12,000 locals have been killed and 3 lakh civilians were injured in the crackdown. USA again resumed negotiations for closure of the nuclear sites and warned Iran to stop executions of Iranian citizens who were involved in the civil protests.
There was an uneasy calm before the storm, Qatar mediated between USA and Iran and organised a meeting between the two to resolve issues amicably. The first meeting between foreign ministers of the two countries was held in Oman, a neutral venue in the second week of February 2026. The diplomats agreed to meet again in last week of February again.
However, ‘Operation Epic Fury’ was initiated at the first light of the day on February 28, 2026. Mossad had gathered valuable intelligence that the Supreme Leader Ali Khameini will be addressing his top IRGC and military commanders along with the Iranian defence minister at 0900 at IRGC Headquarters, in Tehran. CIA also confirmed the input.
The Joint task force of F 35s of IAF and B2 stealth bombers reached the target at 0930 hrs and rained 100 plus GBU 57 (30,000 Pounds) GPS guided bunker buster bombs on the IRGC HQ Complex for a high-level top-secret conference.
Iraqi Air defence equipped with S300 Russian SAM batteries, was jammed and neutralised. Another task force bombed five nuclear sites at Nantz, Fordow, Bushehr, Isfahan and Arak nuclear facilities.
By evening, it was announced that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenai, Defence Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and IRGC corps commander General Mohammad Pakpour and top religious leaders and commanders were killed in the precision air strikes.
By March 3, the fourth day of the War, Iran has consumed at least 50% of its missiles’ stock. War will not last long once Iran’s missile stock is depleted. Iran Navy and Airforce have ceased to exist. Casualties in Iran have mounted enormously
Iran was in state of shock and grief at the great loss of its head of state. US President commented that we have achieved our objective and it was time for Iranian public to seize opportunity and change the radical regime in-power since 1979.
Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Aragachi were still alive and took control of the situation and declared that Iran will fight back and take revenge. By late evening, night sky was illuminated as hundreds of missiles were launched towards Israel and drone attacks were carried out on US military bases in the region.
Reportedly, most of the Iranian missiles were intercepted and destroyed mid-air by US patriot SAM AD system.
On March 1, 2026, almost entire West Asia was like a war zone. As per unconfirmed reports, while, Mojtaba Hossen Khamenei, second son of Ali Khamenei was sworn-in as the new head of the country, USAF and IDF carried out further strikes on military infrastructure in various Iranian towns.
So far, USA, Israel and Iran were directly involved in the war, but Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan, Cyprus, and Saudi Arabia were also sucked-in indirectly due to location of US military bases in their countries.
Britain, France, and Italy also have mobilised being NATO allies. Russia, China, and North Korea have condemned attack on Iran but so far remain out of the battle zone.
Meanwhile, the Indian PM has recommended that War is no solution. All matters could be solved with dialogue and diplomacy. There have been large scale demonstrations in Karachi and Gilgit, Baltistan being Shia dominated areas, India also saw demonstrations in Srinagar, Aligarh, Lucknow and Kargil.
On March 2, Iran bombed oil tankers and installations in Saudi Arabia and declared Strait of Hormuz as closed. 100 plus Oil tankers are struck in Gulf, at present. Few of them were also hit.
Reportedly, the US Navy has destroyed about 11 Warships of Iran and few SU 24 S have also been shot down. Iran has reported 550 fatal casualties including 160 girl students and 750 critically wounded.
Shortly, USA may declare that all its objectives have been achieved. Israel is satisfied that its dangerous foe is tamed, for the time. Proxy war based on lone wolf attacks may continue. But fortuitously, World War 3 has been postponed to a future date
Meanwhile, three F15 fighter planes of the USAF have been shot down but pilots ejected safely in Kuwait. Six US soldiers have also lost life in missile attacks.
So far, the UAE has faced the worst attack by Iran. About 180 missiles were fired on Dubai and Abu Dhabi, but 90 % were neutralised by US patriots air defence missiles. Dubai Airport, Palm Jumeirah and Burj Khalfa area have been hit by missiles. Meanwhile, all flights from West Asian countries have been cancelled. Thousands of tourists are trapped at various airports in middle eastern countries.
Allegedly, Iran has a total stock of 3,000 ballistic missiles of assorted ranges. It possesses conventional Shahab, Qiam, Al Fateh, Zolfaghar (350 to 750 kms range), Khyber and Shahab 3 (900 to 1500 Kms range) and Sejjil and Khorram Shehr (with 2000 kms range). The most advanced hypersonic missile is Al Fattah 2 with Mach 7 speed which can pierce the much-claimed Iron Dome of Israel.
By March 3, the fourth day of the War, Iran has consumed at least 50% of its missiles’ stock. War will not last long once Iran’s missile stock is depleted. Iran Navy and Airforce have ceased to exist. Casualties in Iran have mounted enormously.
China or Russia will not get involved in the war. Hamas is dead as of date, but Hezbollah and Houthis will continue firing missiles on Northern Israel and disturb oil tankers’ movement in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
US has also realised that there will be no regime change in Iran and Iran will sign treaty of restriction/destruction of fissile material under the IAEA. Oil prices have already soared.
Shortly, USA may declare that all its objectives have been achieved. Israel is satisfied that its dangerous foe is tamed, for the time. Proxy war based on lone wolf attacks may continue. But fortuitously, World War 3 has been postponed to a future date.
-The writer is an Indian Army veteran and a defence analyst. He has keen interest in Geo-strategic affairs and writes regularly on internal and external affairs issues related to India and neighbours. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
