“The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil but by those who watch them without doing anything…” – Albert Einstein.
The profile of the ongoing war in the Middle East suggests that both sides have committed blunders in assessing the opponent’s strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, the war has taken an ugly turn against their expectations. Not only have the two warring parties made errors, but many defence analysts are being misled by misinformation from both sides. In the bargain, both belligerents are trying to mask their ‘strategic miscalculation’ of each other.
The tenacity of Iran to withstand the might of the US/Israel’s firepower for over a month has surprised many. It is undoubtedly true that the US miscalculated on a quick victory. It was anticipated that Iran would collapse once Ayatollah Khamenei was neutralised. It did not happen because another miscalculation was to underestimate the extent of hold over Iran by the religious fanaticism. The US and Israel had miscalculated that the general public of Iran would rise in revolt against the regime once Khamenei was eliminated. The US/Israel did not realise that Iran had anticipated this scenario and had adopted the ‘Mosaic Leadership’ concept.
There is no doubt that the war, so far, has gone on unexpected lines for both sides. There is no quick victory for the US/ISRAEL. Even for Iran, their missile cities/tunnels have not proved to be foolproof. So far, it is a ‘stalemated war’ with victory elusive to both sides.
This entailed the division of Iran into 31 autonomous commands with Commanders having full authority to act on their own, should the Supreme Leader be killed. This authority could not be countermanded by anyone but the new Supreme Leader. Thus, the war goes on with 31 autonomous commanders carrying out their well-defined tasks, as per their understanding and wisdom, without central directions and coordination. Mosaic leadership is a good defensive strategy, but not enough to defeat enemies. Fixed Defences are never impregnable.
Iran’s miscalculation was its underestimation of the effect of the lack of proper air defence and air superiority. It was expected that its ‘missile cities’ of hundreds of kilometres of tunnels would negate US/Israel air superiority. It had been thought that the tunnels in the mountainous region, made of concrete and up to a depth of 80 metres, would withstand aerial bombing. But it did not properly visualise the destructive power of bombs such as GBU-57, GBU-75 and GBU-2000.
The B2 bomber attacks along the Strait of Hormuz have caused extensive damage to Iran’s missile cities and tunnel infrastructure. It is estimated that one-third of the IRGC is trapped in tunnels after the entrances were destroyed. Once they are totally neutralised, ground operations will start, it is estimated by April 4.
It also failed to understand the satellite surveillance and information acquisition of the US to carry out pinpoint attacks. Besides, the religious regime did not realise that there was a huge undercurrent against it due to the killing of thousands of protesting citizens in May-June 2025. There were easy recruits available for MOSSAD and CIA to provide accurate and timely information on Iranian political and military leadership. What’s more, the lack of coordination in the mosaic system of leadership led to the blind firing of missiles and drones on non-military targets and thus not hurting the opponent’s military might. Instead, it had turned Muslim regimes of West Asia against Iran. Whatever sympathies were there amongst people, they were blown away.
There is no doubt that the war, so far, has gone on unexpected lines for both sides. There is NO quick victory for the US/ISRAEL. Even for Iran, their missile cities/tunnels have not proved to be foolproof. So far, it is a ‘stalemated war’ with victory elusive to both sides. How long the war will last would depend upon either the US/Israel willingness to place ‘Boots on the Ground’ and accept casualties, or Iran blinking to retain whatever was left after a month-long pounding by the US/Israel. Either way, there is no chance for Iran to win.
All the sane Indian media and most of the Indian defence analysts are spreading falsehood about Iran getting an upper hand in the war. It is a great lie; maybe Indians are annoyed with the TARIFF WAR of Donald Trump and this makes them over-assess Iran’s capabilities. But their assessment and hopes are far from the truth.
It must be known that in the aftermath of this war, whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz as well as Kharg Island will be the real winner. The US cannot allow Iran to control it, whatever the cost. Note that VICTORY COMES AT A PRICE. If the US was worried about BODY BAGS, it should not have initiated this war.
Likely, the free flow of information about damage caused by Iran’s missile and drone attacks from Israel, the US and its allies in West Asia ensure easy but exaggerated notice, while the controlled flow of information from a totalitarian regime in Iran was blocking the true picture of the extent of damage caused there. Notably, pinpointed neutralisation of Iran’s military and political leadership ought to be supported by inside information. It means there was some segment of support for US actions within Iran and they were waiting for the right opportunity to revolt. It is a matter of days before Iran collapses.
The B2 bomber attacks along the Hormuz Strait tunnels have caused extensive damage to the missile cities & tunnels infrastructure of Iran. It is estimated that 1/3rd of the IRGC is trapped in the tunnel entrances, having been destroyed. Once they are totally neutralised, ground operations will start, it is estimated by April 4.
USS Tripoli, with 2900 marines, has already entered the Indian Ocean. It is a ship equipped for sea invasion. It has attack helicopters and Kamikaze (UNMANNED) boats to tackle mines. Besides 10-15,000 other soldiers are in the Middle East. Note that the purpose/aim was not to attack mainland Iran but SECURE HORMUZ STRAIT-cum-ANNEX KHARG ISLAND. This is why coastal defences of Iran were being plastered, along with Iran’s capacity to manufacture missiles and drones. The largest steel plants of Iran have been destroyed, not to forget the destruction of storage facilities of missiles and drones in the tunnels in the mountains along the Strait of Hormuz.
It must be known that in the aftermath of this war, whoever controls the Strait of HORMUZ as well as Kharg Island, will be the real winner. The US cannot allow Iran to control it, whatever the cost. Note that VICTORY COMES AT A PRICE. If the US was worried about BODY BAGS, it should not have initiated this war. Maybe it was a miscalculation that Iran would collapse once Khamenei had gone. But it has to be rectified now at a price. The US can shy away from this, only at a risk of losing its credibility and prestige.
The survivability of Iran’s religious fanaticism after this war will be an existential threat to the whole world. Iran’s religious fanaticism is not only a threat to the US/Israel, but it will graduate to all ‘non-believers’ in Iranian Islam. It is a dangerous situation for the Sunni sect of Islam. ‘Death to Israel’ may also translate into ‘death to Sunnis’.
The United States has to go for a ‘FACE SAVING VICTORY’. The only way it can do so is by controlling HORMUZ and KHARG Island. Both demand BOOTS ON GROUND. No escape from this, leaving it with Iran would make it recoup and reorganise in the next 10-12 years. Once it acquires Nukes, it would ensure not only DEATH TO ISRAEL but also to the US SUPREMACY of the globe. Besides, the survivability of Iran’s religious fanaticism in this war would be an existential threat to the whole world. Religious fanaticism is unacceptable in the world of 21st Century. It ought to be given a ‘death sentence’ for the rest of the world to exist peacefully and in a harmonious environment. Religious fanaticism of Iran is not only a threat to the US/Israel, but it will graduate to all ‘non-believers’ in Iranian Islam. It is a dangerous situation for the Sunni sect of Islam. ‘Death to Israel’ may also translate into ‘death to Sunnis’.
It is time to recollect the golden words of German pastor Martin Niemoller during Hitler’s Nazi regime: “First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out — because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out — because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out — because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me — and there was no one left to speak for me.”
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
