“— The Americans are winning everything — except the War” – Israeli General Moshe Dayan during his visit to Vietnam in 1966.
It must be noted that VICTORY or the WIN comes at a price. Is USA prepared to pay this price? The fear of “body bags “arriving in USA, deters US military to employ “boots on Ground” (BOG). Without this, victory against Iran is a far cry because Iran has been preparing to counter this US Tech-heavy weapon advantage by creating “missile cities” deep underground in the mountainous terrain of Iran. It is worthwhile to note that 60% of Iran is mountainous terrain. It needs physical clearance by employing soldiers. Drones and missiles can cause damage partially or considerably but cannot give victory on a platter.
Notwithstanding two daring operations by the US army to rescue two pilots of a US bomber aircraft, shot down over Iranian air space last week, the reality is that it was a NO victory. It reflected the inherent fear of likely violent US public reaction of losing two soldiers. “Body bags” are Not acceptable to the public and this was not the plasma of victory. In any case, rescue operation was no measure of a win. It shows lack of staying power. This “shoot and scoot” operation showed that Iran was still the effective master of its land. The success of rescue mission is no sign of Iran’s defeat.
Some even claim that rescue operation was a diversion or part of a deception plan or may be even Contingency “B”. The real objective of the operation could be the extraction of 450 KGs of 60% enriched uranium stored in Isfahan and Natanz nuclear facilities. The massive scale of efforts involved in this operation, such as, 155 aircrafts and helicopters and over 200 special forces soldiers from Navy’s Team Seal-6 and Delta force, indicate that motive could be to catch hold of enriched uranium. This is why a firm base was set up 35 kms southeast of Isfahan. It seems to be equidistant between Natanz and Isfahan. It might have been attempted but abandoned due to a “leak”, as suggested by President Donald Trump.
The fear of “body bags “arriving in USA, deters US military to employ “boots on Ground” (BOG). Without this, victory against Iran is a far cry because Iran has been preparing to counter this US Tech-heavy weapon advantage by creating “missile cities” deep underground in the mountainous terrain of Iran
It may have been limited use of BOG for a specific period and a definite purpose. But signals from injured co-pilot were also picked up by IRGC and it had started converging on to the Firm Base. This is why “expedition force of BOG “had to quickly abandon and destroyed two dysfunctional C- 130 J in a hurry.
Whatever the reason, but Iran has been successful to not only deny a quick victory but cause heavy damages to Israel and US. This is the main point. History of US military tells me that they shy away from hard fights, be it Vietnam or Afghanistan — they are victims of their tech-heavy weaponry. Their soldiers think weaponry will get them victory. They made this mistake in Vietnam, Cambodia and even in Afghanistan.
Israeli General Moshe Dayan’s prophetic words, when he visited US army in Vietnam in the year 1966, even today, must resonate in the ears of US military strategists. According to accounts, when General William Westmoreland had asked for his impressions, Dayan bluntly replied, ” …..You have already lost this war and you still don’t know it”. This is still applicable 60 years later. While impressed by American firepower, Dayan was deeply critical of the US strategy, predicting that political limitations and an inability to adapt to guerrilla tactics would result in a political defeat, despite overwhelming military superiority.
Dayan described US military resources as “all that a commander can visualise in a dream”. However, he viewed the US military approach as too conventional—relying on high-altitude bombing and massive firepower — which he argued was ineffective against a hidden, elusive enemy that mixed into the civilian population. In this case, too, enemy and his weaponry are hidden in the underground tunnels, going as deep as 80-100 meters in the hard rugged mountainous terrain.
The airman’s rescue operation was a diversion or part of a deception plan or may be even Contingency “B”. The real objective of the operation could be the extraction of 450 KGs of 60% enriched uranium stored in Isfahan and Natanz nuclear facilities
To do away with Iran’s “Missile Cities” and “Mosaic Leadership strategy”, there is an urgent need to position BOG. Even for a “face saving victory” to control Hormuz Strait and Kharg Island, employment of BOG was a forgone conclusion. The problem of US Army is that it thinks tech- heavy weapons alone can win them this war. Technology is a “force multiplier”, it assists you but not the prime instrument of victory.
Sacking of Chief of General Staff of the US Army, General Randy George, by Pete Hegseth, Defence Secretary of USA, shows that even US military is not confident of victory. Downing of US F16, A10, MQ 9 Reaper or even F35 and Apache helicopters by Iran reflects that USA did not enjoy full air superiority over Iranian air space. May be that China or Russia are helping Iran in this effort. But their interests were to keep USA bogged down in the Middle East and cause maximum attrition to her. It is a tricky situation for the USA to be in.
Even NATO is not helping USA to get out of this tricky situation. Spain, Germany, France and even UK have declined to join USA on the plea that it was not Europe’s war. Thus, as things stand today, USA, on its own, cannot win this war, if it continues to rely heavily on its tech- heavy weaponry. And even employment of BOG now would be too late for the USA — this is why General Randy George has to go home for declining to send his soldiers to “Slaughter House”, as Iran seems to be for US troops.
Popularity rating of President Donald Trump has nosedived. It is almost zero. It is as low as it was of President Richard Nixon due to the Watergate scandal. “Iran gate” may end Republican majority in the Senate in the midterm elections in November 2026. Reduced presence of Republicans will create serious problems for President Trump. There were large protests in USA due to this war. Most Americans think that president might have played into the hands of Israel and Saudi Arabia. Even US armed forces have doubts on the judiciousness of this war. All this will further worsen situation if a “face saving” exit is not done by Trump administration. And this “face saving goal post “is taking control of Strait of Hormuz and ensure free flow of oil/gas traffic from Hormuz.
Iran has been successful to not only deny a quick victory but cause heavy damages to Israel and US. This is the main point. History of US military tells me that they shy away from hard fights, be it Vietnam or Afghanistan — they are victims of their tech-heavy weaponry
Geopolitically speaking, what seems to be on the cards in the near future? Iran, though devastated beyond recognition, would come out as a powerful force within the Middle East. The prospects of it acquiring nuclear bomb cannot be ruled out, once USA pulls out of this conflict as a “negotiated settlement”. If it happens, Saudi Arabia and UAE will also go for nuclear weapons, at whatever cost. Nuclear proliferation will haunt not only the Middle East but even rest of the world. Globe will become a dangerous place to live in.
What about USA, if it does not ensure victory in this war — which demands human blood? Well! Its economy will get a major hit. Dollar will become an unwanted commodity. USA will no more be “the ring master” of the globe. The baton might pass over to a Collective leadership, which may include, Russia, China, India, Brazil or even Germany, Japan, and South Africa. NATO will no longer exist. UN will cry for total overhaul. Though USA might not fragment but will Donald Trump go down in history as Gorbachev of erstwhile Soviet Union? It all depends upon US performance in the ongoing war. Geopolitics of globe will fluctuate between who wins or loses — even a stalemate will be seen as a “Win” for Iran. The frustration of President Donald trump is visible from his latest threat to Iran on “Truth Social”, “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the ‘fuckin’ strait, you crazy bastards, or you will be living in hell— Just Watch! Praise be to Allah.” Donald J Trump.
Since then, a two weeks temporary ceasefire has been accepted by the two sides, but with claims and counterclaims. But if it is a stalemate — so, the winner would be Iran. Donald Trump has lost, if not the USA.
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
