In the realm of International Politics, security is regarded as the holy grail of state actors. The realist theory of international relations argues that in the international political arena, there is no overarching authority that can regulate the behaviour of state actors. In the absence of such an authority, each state becomes responsible for its survival. Self-preservation becomes the default concern. In that context, state actors do whatever it takes to securitise them in order to enhance their chances of survival. However, the strengthening of a state’s offensive and defensive capabilities is met with suspicion and mistrust by other states, prompting them to mirror such steps to enhance their security vis-à-vis other states. The result is the creation of an anarchic arena where states jostle for survival.
Such a situation seems to be currently unfolding in the Middle East. A few days ago, Israel carried out airstrikes at a compound that directed top Hamas officials who were a part of a negotiating team to put an end to the protracted Gaza war. The airstrikes resulted in six casualties, including a Qatari security officer.
The Israeli attack on Qatar has brought a tectonic shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East. Israel came under heavy criticism from countries across the length and breadth of the region
This incident has put the Middle East on edge. Qatar wasted little time in condemning the brazen actions of Israel, pointing out that Israel was not only violating international law by violating the sovereignty of a sovereign state, but it was also jeopardising the ability of Qatar to act as a mediator. Qatar immediately announced a suspension of further talks.
In contrast, Israel unabashedly asserted that it will do whatever it takes to bring down Hamas and its leadership apparatus, signalling an increasingly hardening political-military stance of the most powerful country in the Middle East. This matter, therefore, needs further analysis.
Changes in Middle Eastern Geopolitics
The Israeli attack on Qatar has brought a tectonic shift in the regional geopolitics of the Middle East. Israel has come under heavy criticism from countries across the length and breadth of the region. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and others have jumped to the defence of Qatar, arguing that while Israel’s actions in Gaza have already crossed many red lines that were laid by the Gulf kingdoms, Israel’s recent action in Qatar has certainly crossed all limits.
India expressed deep concern over the Israeli airstrikes, arguing that international law must be strictly upheld and diplomacy must be used to deal with conflicts
This clearly signals how the regional equations in the Middle East are changing at a phenomenal pace. Back in June, when the Israel-USA duo launched airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear sites under operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer, the reaction from the Gulf kingdoms was somewhat reserved and even lauded behind closed doors.
However, an attack on a Sunni Gulf kingdom has changed all calculations; countries that had normalised ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords are miffed at the Jewish state, signalling the growing isolation of the latter. That being said, the provocative actions of Israel in Gaza and the flagrant violation of a country’s sovereignty are causing a sort of rapprochement between the various Muslim countries in the region that may well enhance the chances of Shia-Sunni reconciliation, notwithstanding their differing geopolitical and geostrategic perceptions.
Difficult Choices
For India, a country that has carefully cultivated independent and strong relations with the Gulf countries and Israel, matters are becoming increasingly difficult. One of the greatest successes of the Narendra Modi government so far has been the de-hyphenation of ties between the Gulf kingdoms and Israel. For the past decade, India has managed to deal with these actors separately. But when one of the allies acts against the other, countries are often forced to take a stand. This is precisely what India did.
India has drawn a line with Israel despite the flourishing ties between the two and made it clear that it stands firm on the issue of maintaining international peace and security
India expressed deep concern over the Israeli airstrikes, arguing that international law must be strictly upheld and diplomacy must be used to deal with conflicts.
In doing so, India has drawn a line with Israel. It has clearly stated that, notwithstanding the flourishing nature of this relationship, India stands firmly on the issue of maintaining international peace and security.
However, the issue that arises is that there is a possibility that Israel may perceive India’s unusually assertive stand against it as a shock, prompting it to search for alternate avenues for enhancing cooperation. Ironically, had India been rather soft in its criticism of the Jewish state, India’s carefully cultivated relationship with Qatar in general and other Gulf kingdoms in particular would have experienced stress.
Hence, clearly, the situation appears like a Hobson’s choice for India.
In conclusion, it must be highlighted that India must continue to take hard steps whenever it is needed in order to stand up for what is right. That being said, it must also craft innovative forms of diplomacy to reassure allies that India attaches strong importance to strategic ties and will continue to cultivate them further.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
