The clock is ticking for the Iran-Israel War to escalate. Iran recently experienced major cyberattacks targeting its nuclear facilities and all three branches of government; the legislative, executive and judiciary. The attacks disrupted key infrastructure such as transportation, fuel distribution, and ports, and led to significant data theft. These attacks are a prelude to a massive (kinetic) attack by Israel. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chaired a meeting of his War Cabinet, following which, Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said, “Our strike will be lethal, precise and above all, surprising. They won’t understand what happened and how.”
The current round of violence began with Israel attacking the Iranian consulate in Damascus and the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguard in Iran. In July 2024, Israel dropped 2000 lbs of bunker-bursting munitions on a residential complex in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah leaders were holding a meeting. The blast killed Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah. General Abbas Nilforoushan of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was also killed in Beirut. Iran’s response came on October 1; a barrage of 200 missiles in two waves that also hit Israel’s Navatim and the Tel Nof Airbases. Iran claimed that several of Israel’s most advanced aircraft were destroyed but provided no evidence to support the same.
The irony is that the IDF did have advance information of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, but did not alert the border units – was this by design? Also, Israeli media is pointing out that many Israeli casualties on that fateful day happened because of Israeli fire – specifically the Israeli attack helicopter firing at a live open-air concert.
Israeli operations in Gaza (including the occupied West Bank) and Lebanon are going full hilt. In Gaza, at least 42,344 people have been killed and 99,013 people wounded, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Conservative figures show that the death toll includes more than 6,000 women and 11,000 children. The highest number of women killed in a single year was over 2,600 during the US invasion of Iraq in 2016. In Lebanon, over 23,000 have been killed as per recent reports.
It is a travesty that during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Israel was supplying fighter jets, missiles, anti-tank missiles and modern weaponry to Iran plus providing training to the Iranian military. According to the British newspaper ‘Observer’, Israel reportedly sold weapons worth US$500 million annually during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war.
Israel has declared UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres persona non grata and asked the UN contingent in Lebanon to leave. UNIFIL has accused Israel of using tanks and chemical weapons against a UN position, 15 UN peacekeepers suffered effects, including skin irritation and gastrointestinal reactions because of the chemical attack.
The irony is that the IDF did have advance information of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, but did not alert the border units – was this by design? Also, Israeli media is pointing out that many Israeli casualties on that fateful day happened because of Israeli fire – specifically the Israeli attack helicopter firing at a live open-air concert. Ironically, Brigadier General Yuval Bazak, a consummate IDF soldier who also lost his soldier son on October 7, 2023, had grasped long ago that Israel was moving toward a broad regional confrontation, but his warnings were ignored. There is also speculation that the decision to invade Gaza was a diversion from the inquiry examining the corruption charges against Netanyahu.
Israel has no redlines in Gaza and Lebanon. Food aid and supplies have been freely attacked. UN aid workers and UN personnel have suffered casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. Israel has declared UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres persona non grata and asked the UN contingent in Lebanon to leave. The UN of course is staying put despite five UN personnel injured in Israeli fire. A UNIFIL report has accused Israel of using tanks and chemical weapons against a UN position injuring five UN personnel. A UNIFIL report says that even while wearing protective masks, 15 UN peacekeepers suffered effects, including skin irritation and gastrointestinal reactions because of the chemical attack. IDF soldiers have also been stopping critical UNIFIL logistical movements in Lebanon by denying them passage.
A report published on September 19, 2024, in the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), which is dedicated to educating Congress, military and civilians on national security, has pointed out the grave disadvantage of an all-out hot war with Iran, saying, “a theatre-level war with Iran would be a war of missiles and drones.”
On September 30, the Pope said that Israel’s attacks in Gaza and Lebanon have been ‘immoral’ and ‘disproportionate’, and that Israel’s military domination has gone beyond the rules of war. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in no mood for a ceasefire, although the US is making feeble noises about a ceasefire – primarily because of the upcoming US presidential elections and opposition from the America-Arab Forum.
Does Israel have a problem – yes it does. It is surrounded by hostile neighbours – some becoming enemies due to its own volition. There is enough armament to continue operations endlessly, but what about the number of physical casualties in Israel – both civilians and the IDF that may keep mounting, as indicated by the recent Hezbollah barrage? Moreover, the IDF is short of infantry, which implies that Lebanon, Beirut included, will have to be flattened like Gaza for the tanks to effectively clear all areas. In addition, there are intricate tunnel systems in Gaza and Lebanon, which are daunting. How much of the 500-km tunnel labyrinth in Gaza has actually been cleared remains ambiguous despite the IDF using the AI-driven Lavender System and PGMs.
The recent Hezbollah barrage of drones, rockets and missiles has laid bare the weakness of Israel’s air defences. The US is moving a THAAD missile battery consisting of six mobile launchers with eight interceptors each – a total of 48 missiles manned by a crew of 100 men at a cost of about US$1 billion. But this system is ineffective against hypersonic missiles, same as the Patriots supplied to Kiev.
The world awaits a wider regional war. Israel has said that it will not attack Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities but there is no guarantee what may happen. Iran has already said there will be no redlines if war with Israel erupts. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that Iran is one-two weeks from acquiring a nuke but then the US was taken by surprise when India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests. There is also speculation that Iran may possibly have one already and may have even conducted an underground test. Similar ambiguity exists about a delivery system. Israel has nuclear weapons but it will suffer much more in a nuclear exchange because of its size.
Can Netanyahu finish Hamas and Hezbollah or is he weaponising millions more as radicals in the form of the displaced persons and relatives of the killed and wounded; given that forms of seeking revenge have changed drastically from the yore? Ironically, the two-state solution in Gaza is not acceptable to the US and Israel, so both sides may keep bleeding. As to dealing with terrorism, the Western policy is by and large the same – the US helped establish, arm and train Al Qaeda, Taliban, ISIS, ISKP, and Jabhat al-Nasra, fought them and is using them now as proxy boots on the ground; all part of warmongering to advance its sinister national interests. Similarly, the previous Netanyahu governments were facilitating the financing of Hamas, itself and by allowing Qatari funds to transit through its territory to Gaza.
A report published on September 19, 2024, in the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), which is dedicated to educating Congress, military and civilians on national security, has pointed out the grave disadvantage, in an all-out hot war with Iran. JINSA notes, “a theatre-level war with Iran would be a war of missiles and drones,” and Tehran’s April 13 attack on ‘Israel’ was a “comprehensive demonstration of Iranian operational design.” It called Iran’s October 1 attack on Israel the largest and most devastating in its 76-year history and contradicts claims by Tel Aviv and Washington that Western air defence systems successfully repelled the blitzkrieg.
The above was despite the US and Israel declaring in April they were “even better prepared for a new Iranian attack” than last time around. The report says the ease with which Israel’s purportedly ‘impregnable Iron Dome’ was bested exposes it as hopeless. One recommendation by JINSA is to “consider basing in Israel”. US military presence in Tel Aviv, although this has been slowly growing over recent years albeit unacknowledged and downplayed.
The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.
