From the very beginning the Kremlin has been skeptical of US President Donald Trump’s declaration of ending Ukraine war within 24 hours of his taking the charge of the White House and dismissed it as campaign promises. Because with the Western arms and logistic support, Zelinsky’s forces have escalated the hostilities through massive strikes on Russia’s critical military and energy infrastructure drawing devastating retaliatory strikes by the advancing Russian troops deeper into Ukrainian territory.
President Vladimir Putin has declared his readiness to meet with the US President Trump if he takes “cognisance of ground reality”, (traditionally Russian speaking occupied territories of Eastern Ukraine, should be recognised as part of Russia).
Other conditions set by the Kremlin for lasting peace include: downsizing the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU) to 50,000, withdrawal of long-range weapons supplied by NATO countries, denazification of Ukraine, no NATO membership and guarantee of neutrality.
However, these conditions are unacceptable for Volodymyr Zelensky, who demands Russian rollback to the line when it launched its special military operation on February 24, 2022. Moscow, which has categorically refused to agree for a ceasefire sans comprehensive solution of the Ukraine, has little interest in holding talks with Zelinsky as it considers him as an illegitimate head of Ukraine, whose term expired last year in May, according to the constitution of former Soviet state he was to hand over power to the Speaker of ‘Verkhovna Rada’ (Parliament). Russia says any deal with Zelensky could be declared ‘null and void’ by Ukraine’s constitution court.
OBAMA’S TRAP FOR TRUMP
Speaking off the record, sources in the Kremlin and Russian Duma note that the unpredictability of Donald Trump is well known. Just in seven days in the Oval Office Trump 2.0 has equally scared friends and foes by his various executive decisions.
On Ukraine also, his position is not very confident as he has fallen-in the trap set by Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama who in 2014 engineered notorious Maidan coup in Kiev, overseen by State Department’s Under Secretary Victoria Nuland, who in her leaked telephonic conversation with US Ambassador in Kiev is reported to have said ‘fu**k EU’ which was trying to reconcile anti-government protestors with pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich.
With the ouster of Yanukovich, ethnic Russian majority regions of Ukraine – Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence. Fearing imminent admission of Ukraine into NATO, President Putin ordered the military to take action to get Crimea back into Russia’s fold.
However, until February 24, 2022, Russia continued to recognise Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) as integral parts of Ukraine, with more cultural autonomy and say in accession to NATO.
The negotiations to resolve the situation were conducted in the so-called ‘Normandy Format’ by France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia. Donald Trump during his first term avoided arming Ukraine with lethal weapons capable of harming Russia.
“Trump 2.0 now is being forced to play on the chessboard left by Obama’s successor Joseph Biden. God only knows what his plans are, he may continue war or simply upset the chess board,” a member of Russian parliament said in a private conversation. Russian lawmaker said under President Putin’s leadership Russia is ready for both scenarios.
In his first TV interview, President Trump said if he was president this war would never have happened. Mr Putin putting his response in an interview to the Russian state TV, agreed with POTUS and added “unfortunately 2020 polls were rigged” (in favour of Joe Biden).
Trump also says that Zelensky is “no angel and shouldn’t have allowed this war to happen”. The Kremlin shrugged off Trump’s warning to Russia that if Moscow does move to settle this war soon the US would put “massive tariffs and big sanctions” on Russia.
Trump has requested Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower the price of crude. Last such move led to the collapse of the USSR and end of the Cold War, probably this is why Trump said war in Ukraine will stop next day, if the oil prices come down.
In response President Putin, who has been preparing the Russian economy to face the challenge of oil price drop from the first day in Kremlin, responded “ready to discuss oil prices, but they have no relevance for the Ukraine war.” He also said that Trump will hardly impose massive tariffs and sanctions detrimental to the US economy.
Most civilians though, backing President Putin’s leadership and war efforts, are eagerly waiting for the start of talks with Trump to end the crisis as soon as possible so that they could visit relatives living in the two countries.
–The writer is a Moscow-based independent defence analyst. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the
views of Raksha Anirveda
