Two key developments in military aerospace are poised to significantly impact the balance of air power in India’s neighbourhood. Firstly, China’s premier fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-20 Mighty Dragon, has entered mass production and is becoming a key component of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). The J-20 entered service in 2017, and the PLAAF already has over 200 fighter jets in its fleet. The goal is to take the number to 400 by 2027 and 1,000 by 2035. China has also deployed at least six J-20s less than 150 km from the border with India in the Sikkim region.
Secondly, China is in talks with Pakistan to sell its export model stealth fighter – the J-35 Shenyang. Beijing is expected to deliver forty J-35s in less than two years. The J-35’s advanced radar evasion features will allow Pakistan to penetrate India’s air defences more effectively, giving it a strategic advantage in any potential conflict. India had achieved air superiority over the subcontinent with the induction of the MiG-29 fighter-bomber in 1987, and the J-35 could see Pakistan wrest the advantage after 38 years. Losing the stealth fighter race would prove to be an acute embarrassment for India, which has an economy that’s ten times larger than dirt poor Pakistan.
The two developments have added to the urgency for India to IAF fast-track its own capabilities. At the heart of the IAF’s ambitious defence modernisation plans, which have taken centre stage in recent years, is the ongoing Medium-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) project. Originally kicked off to equip the with cutting-edge fighter jets, the project has encountered multiple delays, rising costs and operational challenges.
One of the key issues is the high cost of foreign aircraft, notably the Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon. While these platforms offer advanced capabilities, they come at a premium price. The Rafale, for example, is one of the most expensive fighter jets on the market, with each unit costing India over $236 million. Additionally, slow delivery timelines mean that the IAF’s urgent need for modern fighters may not be met in time to counter the threats from China and Pakistan.
The MRFA project has also faced complications around technology transfer. Despite ongoing discussions, manufacturers like Dassault – which manufactures the Rafale – have been hesitant to transfer crucial technologies to India, limiting the country’s ability to build a self-reliant defence industry. This dependence on foreign suppliers undermines India’s long-term strategic objectives and leaves the IAF vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, especially during geopolitical crises.
Adding to the complexity is the Russian Su-57. The stealth fighter-bomber, touted as a fifth-generation aircraft, has been criticised for its operational shortcomings and production delays. In the 2010s, India had signed up for acquiring as many as 200 of these aircraft but the IAF withdrew from the project, citing lack of transparency from the Russian side. While India may engage with Russia on this platform during future Modi-Putin summits, pursuing this route is filled with uncertainty as Russian capabilities in the stealth domain are not proven yet. Plus, given India’s growing divergence from Russian weapons systems, pursuing this platform means back to dependence on Moscow. Given these considerations, the MRFA appears increasingly untenable, particularly in its current form. The question arises: Should India abandon the project and pursue a different route?
India had achieved air superiority over the subcontinent with the induction of the MiG-29 fighter-bomber in 1987, and the J-35 could see Pakistan wrest the advantage after 38 years. Losing the stealth fighter race would prove to be an acute embarrass-ment for India
Case for Strategic Collaboration
Collaborating with experienced international firms can enhance project management skills necessary for complex aerospace projects. This experience is vital for avoiding delays and ensuring adherence to stringent timelines, which have been a concern for Indian defence officials.
Partnering with established aerospace companies can also facilitate the transfer of critical technologies such as stealth features, advanced avionics and electronic warfare systems. Aircraft engines are an area where India currently lacks capabilities.
An outlier in the stealth arena is Saab which is stepping into the future of aerial warfare with the development of the Flygsystem 2020, a sixth-generation stealth fighter designed to reshape its air force. Built in Sweden, the Flygsystem 2020 is not just a fighter; it’s a force multiplier, equipped with advanced stealth capabilities, artificial intelligence and manned-unmanned teaming features. The goal is to ensure superiority in high-threat environments, capable of executing a wide range of missions – from taking out ground targets to engaging enemy aircraft.
One of the most revolutionary aspects of the Flygsystem 2020 is its ability to control “Loyal Wingman” drones. These autonomous or semi-autonomous drones can carry out a variety of missions, including firing hypersonic missiles, gathering intelligence, conducting electronic warfare and even performing bomb damage assessments. This integrated approach allows the pilot to command a fleet of drones, greatly enhancing operational flexibility and survivability.
Sweden may seek to leverage similar collaborations to ensure the technology behind the Flygsystem 2020 stays on the cutting edge. Saab can be tapped to partner with India, and possibly other countries and defence companies, in order to develop a multinational stealth fighter with assured orders coming from the member countries.
Can Sweden be Trusted?
Historically, Saab has never won a defence contract in India due to two reasons. One, Sweden is a geopolitical lightweight and cannot offer India any quid pro quo on the global stage. Secondly, Saab often sourced its engines and key technologies from the US and this gives Washington considerable leverage with Sweden. So, for instance, in case of war breaking out between say India and Pakistan, the US can pressure Sweden to turn off the spare parts supplies to India in order to protect Pakistan’s breakup. In fact, the US may cynically block spares to prove Sweden’s non-reliability as a defence partner.
Today, Saab is still reliant on US-based General Electric for its engines, but the company believes it can be trusted to become a reliable weapons supplier. While the Flygsystem 2020 is probably a decade away, in the meantime, Saab has aggressively pitched its Gripen E fighter as a potential solution for India’s fighter aircraft gap, emphasising the following advantages:
Local Assembly Line: Saab has assured India of its commitment to set up a local assembly line in India, which would significantly enhance the domestic manufacturing capabilities.
Technology Transfer: Unlike other manufacturers, Saab has offered full technology transfer, a critical requirement for India’s self-reliance in defence.
Future Upgradability: The Gripen E comes with advanced software that can be upgraded to integrate new armament systems, improving the aircraft’s lifespan and versatility.
Saab’s offering could serve as the bridge between short-term needs and long-term strategic goals. The Gripen E, with its advanced features and Indian assembly line, could – along with the Sukhoi Su-30MKI – form the backbone of the IAF in the medium term, while the focus shifts to the development of the AMCA and Tejas Mk2.
Moreover, Saab’s role could extend beyond simply fulfilling the IAF’s immediate needs. The collaborative development of the Gripen platform could provide India with valuable experience in managing complex fighter jet programmes, laying the groundwork for the ambitious AMCA project.
Multinational Sixth-Generation GCAP
Looking ahead, India has an exciting opportunity to participate in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a multinational effort led by the UK, Italy and Japan to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet. India was invited to join this programme two years ago, and Italy has recently shown its willingness to collaborate with India on this front. Participation in GCAP would allow India to leverage the technological expertise of these nations while simultaneously accelerating the development of its own sixth-generation fighter.
Additionally, India has also been invited to join the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) programme. This programme is a unique collaboration among several European nations, aimed at establishing a European-made high stealth aircraft. FCAS is a family of sixth-generation air systems that includes a Next Generation Fighter (NGF) as its centralised product.
Such collaboration would not only bolster India’s future capabilities but also solidify its role as a key player in the global defense ecosystem. It’s an opportunity for India to leapfrog the current technological generation and move directly towards the next frontier in aerial combat.
Saab’s offering could serve as the bridge between short-term needs and long-term strategic goals. The Gripen E, with its advanced features and Indian assembly line, could – along with the Sukhoi Su-30MKI – form the backbone of the IAF in the medium term
Embrace Strategic Partnerships
Given the pressing need to modernise the IAF’s fleet and the technological race with China, it may be time for India to seriously reconsider the MRFA project. Rather than relying on slow, costly foreign acquisitions, India should focus on creating a strategic collaborative framework with OEMs willing to offer full technology transfer, local assembly, and long-term support.
A partnership with Saab, combined with involvement in international initiatives like the GCAP / FCAS, could provide the necessary technological base and geopolitical leverage to accelerate India’s indigenous fighter jet programme. Plus, it would create a robust ecosystem for the development of the AMCA and Tejas Mk2, ensuring that India remains competitive in the evolving global air combat landscape.
India has the talent and resources, but it must act with vision and speed. The future of the Indian Air Force depends on a collaborative approach that transcends short-term procurement solutions and focuses on sustainable, indigenous capabilities.
While the MRFA project is important, India must pivot towards a more strategic, collaborative approach that will fast-track its journey to self-sufficiency, both in the medium-term – via Gripen and others – and long-term – via AMCA and GCAP / FCAS. Only then can India ensure air superiority in the decades to come, with or without its adversaries’ latest fifth and sixth-generation fighters.
–The writer is a globally cited defence analyst. His work has been published by leading think tanks, and quoted extensively in books on diplomacy, counter terrorism, warfare and economic development. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
