India-Russia Ties: Pragmatism Over Pre-Conceived Notions

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India on December 4 and 5 for the 23rd Annual Summit marks an important event in the present global flux. During this visit, both sides are expected to review their bilateral ties and outline a vision for strengthening the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership, and exchange views on regional and global issues of mutual interest.

Popular and conventional analysis highlights several firsts of this visit. This is the first visit by the Russian president to India since 2021, the first visit since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 and the first visit since Operation Sindoor, in which the Russian missile defence system S-400 played a crucial role in securing Indian skies from the onslaught of missiles and fighter jets from Pakistan.

Fresh from the success of the S-400 in Operation Sindoor, Putin is expected to offer a deal for an advanced S-500 missile defence shield and Su-57 fighter jets in his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, although any formal agreement could only be concluded in future. Further, India is likely to finalise a Rs 10,000 crore deal for 275-300 S-400 missiles from Russia.

The actual dynamics among India, Russia and the US are not as black-and-white. Despite tensions with the West over Russia, just as India has maintained a balanced approach with both sides, the US and Russia are also following a similar template. Only two days before travelling to India, Putin met with US envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow on December 2

Putin’s visit to India and the expected focus on defence deals need to be contextualised in the growing complexities of the current world order. Also, to view Putin’s visit only from the narrow prism of the discord between India and the United States would be misleading.

First, Putin is indeed visiting India at a time when India’s ties with the US are undergoing some friction. US President Donald Trump’s unpredictability in ties has caused substantial tensions in New Delhi’s engagements with Washington. Trump’s attempt to push India towards a trade agreement favourable to the US has increased tensions between the two sides that have a robust defence relationship. Further, the US’s growing proximity to Pakistan and hyphenating India and Pakistan has again created an illusion of the Cold War era, where the West enjoyed close ties with Islamabad, and Moscow was New Delhi’s only close ally in the international arena. India’s victory over Pakistan in the short war in May this year, in which Russian defence equipment played a major role, and the US’s sharp tilt towards Pakistan in the following months, has created a situation which is perceived as a choice that India may have to make between the US and Russia. Hence, Putin’s visit to New Delhi is strongly making an impression about the growing wedge between India and the US.

Second, in continuation of the previous point, the actual dynamics among India, Russia and the US are not as black-and-white. Despite tensions with the West over Russia, just as India has maintained a balanced approach with both sides, the US and Russia are also following a similar template. Only two days before travelling to India, Putin met with US envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow on December 2. As much as the US and the West have been supporting Ukraine against Russia, in recent days, there have been indications that Washington has shown readiness to engage with Moscow to explore ways to end the almost four-year Russia-Ukraine war. These developments indicate that the US is also following the stand that India has taken on issues like the Russia-Ukraine war. Although it would be premature to assume that these talks would lead to any positive development, since Washington has not set a deadline for a peace settlement. Parallel to engaging with Russia, US officials have also been holding talks with their Ukrainian counterparts in Florida, the US.

Putin is arriving in New Delhi with two positives on his side. One is the US showing willingness to talk with Russia. Two, in the past few months, Russian forces have made significant advances in Ukraine. Russia’s military successes would prompt the US and its European allies to consider the practicality of prolonging the conflict with Russia

Third, Putin is arriving in New Delhi with two positives on his side. One is the US showing willingness to talk with Russia. Two, in the past few months, Russian forces have made significant advances in Ukraine. According to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia captured 701 square kilometres of the Ukrainian territory in November this year. With this capture, Russia currently holds about 19.3% of the Ukrainian territory. Besides, Moscow has also claimed the capture of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. With these advances, Russia has put itself in a better position should there be any direct dialogue with Ukraine. Russia’s recent military successes would also prompt the US and its European allies to consider the practicality of prolonging the conflict with Russia. Apart from Russia’s successes, Ukraine’s own weaknesses are also surfacing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s credibility is also under scrutiny as his top aide, Andriy Yermak, has resigned amid a corruption scandal. All these happenings have given Russia an upper hand over the West.

So while insisting that India limit its interactions with Russia, the West itself does not engage with Russia in a binary manner, implying that the US is willing to talk to Russia and not totally cut off all dialogue.

As the US and the West are trying to approach Russia from a practical perspective, India and Russia have been pragmatic enough to work quietly in strengthening their ties and maturely working around any differences that may arise owing to the flux in the global order. This indicates that while New Delhi is a leading proponent of a multi-polar global order, its partnership with Moscow is a testimony that these two entities are subtly putting this concept into practice. For its part, the US is also treading a similar path, albeit not accepting this fact.

The India-Russia ties are based more on a pragmatic approach rather than conventional pre-conceived notions that are still stuck in the Cold War-era thinking on the part of the West.