Gulf War 3.0: Strategy and Counter-Strategy

What went wrong and what led to the ‘grand miscalculation’ of Iran’s military capabilities by the USA/Israel? Was it over-confidence of the US/Israel military superiority, or was it the ‘failed uprising’ of Iranian women against the Ali Khamenei regime in 2022, post the death of Mahsa Amini, who had protested against wearing the hijab by women? The protests, which grew in scale, had transitioned into a broader, yet largely leaderless, social movement challenging the Islamic Republic’s social restrictions. The movement was, though, mercilessly crushed by October 2025, but it gave a false impression of the magnitude of underlying resentment against the regime.

The miscalculation also owes itself to a ‘half-cooked’ war of 12 days, from June 13, 2025, to June 24, 2025, fought by Iran and Israel. It began when Israel bombed military and nuclear facilities in Iran in a surprise attack, leading to the assassination of prominent military leaders, nuclear scientists and politicians. It also killed civilians and damaged air defences. Iran retaliated with over 550 ballistic missiles and over 1000 kamikaze drones hitting military, energy and governmental installations. It had left Iran as a ‘wounded snake’, itching to seek revenge.

It is estimated that Iran has an arsenal of 4500-5000 missiles of various kinds and thousands of drones. It is also believed that it has underground facilities, not only for storage in tunnels, but also for factories producing missiles and drones. Iran’s huge mountainous terrain, more than 60% of its total area, gives it a big advantage

However, this ‘half-cooked’ conflict of June 2025 had given enough warning to Ali Khamenei that sooner or later, Israel and the USA would not only come for him but also Iran’s nuclear programme. A proper appreciation of the threat was carried out. It was concluded that it could not match the military might of the USA. Therefore, the best option for Iran was to engage its enemies in a ‘Stand Off’ war. Thus, it was decided to increase its stockpile of drones and missiles —the primary weapons of ‘No Contact Warfare’.

It is estimated that Iran has an arsenal of around 4500-5000 missiles of various kinds and thousands of drones. It is also believed that it has underground facilities, not only for storage in tunnels, but also for factories producing missiles and drones. Iran’s huge mountainous terrain gives it a big advantage. It is more than 60% of Iran’s total geography. Some analysts think that Iran has the capacity to produce 200-250 missiles every month. Comparatively, the US capacity to produce anti-drone/anti-missile weapons is only 7 to 8 per month.

The ability to replenish its arsenal faster than its enemies allows Iran to stretch the war to an extent where it hurts not only the US/Israel economy but also the entire world. The energy crisis is already hurting the globe, and there is panic all around. Iran’s obvious strategy is aimed at bankrupting enemies of not only their ‘arsenal’ but also isolating them. Diminishing international support and the depleted arsenal of the USA/Israel, over a protracted period, would allow Iran to negotiate for a ‘ceasefire deal’ on its own terms. It wants to ‘dictate’ but not to be ‘dictated’.

Iran can produce 200 to 250 missiles every month, while the US can produce only 7 to 8 anti-drone/anti-missile weapons per month. Iran’s ability to replenish its arsenal faster than its enemies allows it to stretch the war to an extent, which hurts the global economy. The energy crisis is already hurting the globe, and there is panic all around

Iran’s mountainous terrain, along with the USA/Israel’s reluctance to place BOG (Boots On Ground), promises Iran a relevant success in its chosen strategy. Besides, Russia and China have their vested interests in keeping the USA engaged with Iran over a protracted period to cause attrition to its military capabilities. It is believed that China’s ‘Beidou’ navigation/communication system provides Iran with accurate inputs on the US bases in the Middle East. It is because of these inputs that Iran was getting almost ‘perfect kills’. The damages caused are extensive and unacceptable.

This has shaken the US/Israel confidence. Dreams of a quick victory have gone awry due to a ‘grand miscalculation’ by underestimating Iran’s preparation for this war. It seems Iranian leadership had correctly gauged the military strategy of the US/Israel, which was based on two factors: First, killing of Ali Khamenei would lead to confusion and chaos; secondly, subdued people will rise against the regime once Khamenei is gone.

The Iranian leadership had anticipated this. Therefore, the entire nation was divided into 31 autonomous commands, independent of each other. They had a proper allocation of missiles and drones with defined targets. There is no gainsaying the fact that these autonomous commanders were bigoted and religious fanatics. They were authorised to take actions as they deemed fit, should the supreme leader and other commanders were neutralised. As these powers were given by the Supreme Commander, the President and other leaders have no mandate to countermand them. All said and done, there seems to be no easy end.

Russia and China have their vested interests in keeping the US engaged with Iran over a protracted period to cause attrition to its military capabilities. China’s navigation/communication system provides Iran with accurate inputs on the US bases in the Middle East. It is because of these inputs that Iran is getting almost ‘perfect kills’

I doubt if Iran would blink first, though it would like to avoid further bloodshed. Exhausted, it might run out of steam in the next two to three weeks. If it happens, it will pave the way for a ‘PUPPET REGIME’. It would further lead to chaos and disorder with insurgency gripping Iran. Not only Iran but the whole of the Middle East will fall prey to volatility, thus affecting global stability and the economy.

On the other hand, domestic pressure, because of the ‘body bags’ of American soldiers arriving, might force the USA to seek an escape route, but honourably. Intensity of the war might turn into a slow-paced stalemate, with a tag of ‘No Victor; No Vanquished’.  This war will herald an era of ‘No Contact Wars’, where there will be emphasis on ‘Stand-Off-capability’ development.

It is better to conclude by quoting the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who outlined the inevitability of this conflict: “It doesn’t matter if we die. Iran is not important, Islam is important.”