The ceasefire in Gaza came into effect on January 19 after months of contested negotiations and delays. Facing death and destruction from continuing strikes from the Israeli forces as well as from increasing starvation and diseases, it has come about as a major relief to thousands of Palestinians in the area. While the cessation of hostilities has brought momentary relief, the underlying tensions remain unresolved.
Key developments, such as Israel’s refusal to vacate the Netzarim Corridor, the resignation of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) Chief, internal political dynamics in Israel, statements coming out of Washington on emptying Gaza of people and delivery of 2000 lb bombs to Israel, are raising questions on the continuity of the ceasefire and the long term peace process.
The Netzarim and Rafah Corridor: Critical Flashpoints
One of the most contentious issues threatening the ceasefire is Israel’s occupation of the Netzarim Corridor. This thin strip of land, which divides the Gaza Strip into two halves, North and South, is critical for the displaced Palestinians to return. Israeli forces were to permit the safe return of Palestinians to Northern Gaza on January 26 after the second exchange of hostages, but in an unexpected twist, they have refused it, saying that Hamas should have released a 29-year-old civilian woman, Arbel Yehud, on January 25 as a part of the second set of hostage release. It was only after Qatar’s intervention and mediation that an agreement was reached. Hamas promised to release her by Friday, January 31, and Israel, in turn, permitted Palestinians to cross over to the North. Earlier, thousands of Palestinians attempting to return to homes in the North on January 26 were fired upon by the Israeli forces in a clear violation of the ceasefire.
In the South, Israel has declared that it will maintain control over the Rafah border crossing, the key passage between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, throughout the first phase of the ceasefire. It has also denied claims that the Palestinian Authority was to oversee operations at the crossing. The crossing is crucial as it is the only one through which critical humanitarian aid is to flow in.
As per the ceasefire deal, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) are to vacate the Netzarim corridor, as well as the Philadelphi corridor (on the border between Gaza and Egypt) by the end of Phase 1. However, it is unclear whether IDF would stick to the deal. Both standoffs could increase the trust deficit between the parties and fuel fears of renewed violence.
One of the most contentious issues threatening the ceasefire is Israel’s occupation of the Netzarim Corridor. This thin strip of land is critical for the displaced Palestinians to return. Israeli forces were to permit the safe return of Palestinians to Northern Gaza on January 26 after the second exchange of hostages, but they refused it
Spate of Resignations in Israel: A Sign of Internal Discontent
Adding to the complexity is the resignation of the IDF Chief, a move that has sent shockwaves through Israeli political and military circles. Although Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, in his resignation letter, said he was resigning “due to my acknowledgment of responsibility for the (military’s) failure on October 7,” inputs suggest that the resignation is tied to disagreements over handling the Gaza conflict and the ceasefire terms. Reports also indicate that the IDF Chief was at odds with the government’s approach, particularly concerning the Netzarim Corridor and the scale of military operations in Gaza. Along with him, Major General Yaron Finkelman, the head of Israel’s southern military command, which is responsible for Gaza, also resigned.
Separately and before the ceasefire, Ben Gvir, the Minister for National Security from the far-right coalition, had resigned from the cabinet, expressing his disapproval. Another far-right minister, Smotrich, who is the Finance Minister, too has threatened to resign if Israel does not re-commence the war after Phase 1.
The change in military leadership, led by disagreements with the political bosses, raises questions about the direction of the Israeli army strategy. Also, political discontent and pressure from coalition members in the government adds to fears that Prime Minister Netanyahu may buckle under pressure and resume military operations in Gaza at the first opportunity.
US Role is Creating Doubts
The role of the US has also come under scrutiny. President Donald Trump who took credit for getting the ceasefire implemented under the threat of ‘all hell will break loose’, is himself having doubts on the continuity of the deal. Just after his inauguration, while speaking to reporters, he said he is ‘not confident’ that the ceasefire will hold. He added that the ongoing conflict is not of direct concern to the US and “that’s not our war, it’s their war.”
On January 25, he added more fuel to the fire, and perhaps tested a ‘red line’ in the region, stating that he would like to see Jordan, Egypt and other Arab nations increase the number of Palestinian refugees they are accepting from the Gaza Strip, suggesting that the 1.5 million population in Gaza should vacate the area to “just clean out” the war-torn areas. It not only drew instant criticism, but Egypt and Jordan both promptly rejected the idea. He also informed the media that he has cleared the obstacles for the delivery of 2,000 lb bombs to Israel, something that was stopped by the previous Biden administration, fearing mass casualties through its use, in Gaza.
These statements and intentions of the US embolden hardline elements within Israel and can prove very counter-productive to the continuation of the ceasefire. It may also force Hamas to harden its stance when further talks are held on Phase 2 of the ceasefire.
The resignation of the IDF Chief sent shockwaves through Israeli political and military circles. Although Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said he resigned due to his acknowledgment of responsibility for the (military’s) failure on October 7, inputs suggest he disagreed over handling the Gaza conflict and the ceasefire terms
Hamas: Re-emerging from the Shadows
On the ground, Hamas appears to be consolidating its control in Gaza. The group has taken charge of public aid distribution, leveraging this role to strengthen its support base among the civilian population. Images of Hamas operatives coordinating relief efforts and ensuring the delivery of essential supplies have bolstered their narrative as defenders of Palestinian interests. By positioning itself as a governance entity capable of addressing civilian needs, Hamas is reshaping its role in Gaza, undermining repeated calls by Israel to ensure that Hamas does not have any say in the future governance of Gaza.
Also, there are inputs to suggest that Hamas has been able to recruit almost 15,000 new cadres, recouping most of its losses. These developments also give fodder to the far-right in Israel who are advocating resumption of the war as Hamas is yet to be eliminated.
Israeli Operations Continue
As the Gaza ceasefire went into effect, Israel shifted its focus to the West Bank. It launched a “large-scale military operation” in the city of Jenin to “eradicate terrorism in Jenin,” as per a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office. On the first day itself, 10 Palestinians were killed, leading to massive protests and calls by Hamas and other groups to wage a war of resistance.
Statement from Elise Stefanik, the US ambassador to the UN stating that Israel has biblical right over the whole of West Bank does not inspire any confidence in cessation of hostilities. Coupled with Trump’s move to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in December 2017, in his first term, it only adds to speculation of continued Israeli operations in the occupied West Bank.
On the Lebanon front, Israel has refused to vacate Southern Lebanon and fired at the residents who were attempting to return to their homes on January 25, the designated day for complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon. Such actions undermine the spirit of the ceasefire in the Gaza war. Succumbing to pressure from the US, the Lebanese government has agreed to extend the ceasefire terms till February 18, but is likely that the IDF may still refuse to vacate the space then too.
On January 25, President Trump added fuel to the fire by stating that he would like to see Jordan, Egypt and other Arab nations increase the number of Palestinian refugees they are accepting from the Gaza Strip, suggesting that the 1.5 million population in Gaza should vacate the area to ‘just clean out’ the war-torn areas
Will the Ceasefire Hold?
The pictures and videos of people returning to their homes in Gaza, crossing the Netzarim Corridor on January 27, have brought cheer in the region and would have boosted the morale of the ‘Resistance’. Similar stories of defiance and resilience are emerging from Southern Lebanon too. It begs the question if Israel and its allies have succeeded in their war objectives concerning the complete elimination of Hamas and Hezbollah and the obliteration of Gaza. Hopefully, it will force the ‘powers to be’ to sit back and think about the futility of war and the loss of human lives as also a long-term solution to the problem.
As regards the ceasefire in Gaza, the sustainability will depend on several factors, including the resolution of key flashpoints like the Netzarim Corridor, the control over the Rafah border crossing, the intent of Israeli leadership, and the role of international actors. Refusal to address the root causes of the conflict — such as the Israeli occupation, blockade of Gaza, and lack of a viable political solution towards a viable and independent state of Palestine — means that tensions will simmer and a conflict could resurface. Also, how the talks on Phase 2 of the ceasefire progress after February 3 will be key to hopes of a permanent end to the war. However, the dynamics within Israel and the developments on the ground so far indicate that the truce is fragile and could break at the smallest provocations.
Without significant concessions from both sides and sustained international pressure, the ceasefire risks being another reprieve in a long cycle of violence. The international community must act decisively to address the root causes of the conflict, prioritise humanitarian relief, and hold all parties accountable. Only then can the fragile truce in Gaza evolve into a foundation for lasting peace.
The writer is a military veteran and a West Asia Expert. During his service, he has been a Director of Military intelligence and Director of the Ministry of Externa Affairs. His X Handle is @rajeev1421. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
