“To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill –,” says Sun Tzu, an ancient Chinese military thinker.
The Russian-Ukraine war, ongoing since February 2021, has amply manifested that wars were no more ‘monkey-dancing of soldiers’ across borders but a ‘Trapeze dance’ of advanced weapon systems of belligerent nations. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, between Israel and Iran-backed terrorist groups such as Hezbollah of Lebanon and Houthis of Yemen further confirms the transforming form of war and military conflicts.
Technology and revolutions in military affairs (T-RMAs) have heralded an era of military conflicts without soldiers striking each other physically. Weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), coupled with weapon systems having effective kill-ratio beyond visual ranges (BVR), have transformed the war from physical contact of soldiers and weapons to ‘Non-Contact warfare’ (NCW).
At times, such warfare is defined as either a ‘Grey Zone’ or even a ‘Hybrid’. However, these definitions might not be sufficient to describe the emerging shape of polemical engagements amongst mutually hostile nations. Wars are being ‘customised’ to serve a particular purpose. Their domain would vary from economics to politics or even to space and water. Aided by BVR (Beyond Visual Range) weapons systems, future wars would be ‘Designer wars’.
‘War and Anti-War’ author Alvin Toffler would have defined the emerging scenario as a transformation from ‘Brute Force Wars’ to ‘Brain Force Wars’. A look at the T-RMAs would tell one how the weapons of physical destruction, and command and control systems have taken a quantum jump
Alvin Toffler, author of ‘War and Anti-War’, would have defined the emerging scenario as a transformation from ‘Brute Force Wars’ to ‘Brain Force Wars’. A look at the T-RMAs (Technical Revolution in Military Affairs) would tell one how not only the weapons of physical destruction but also command and control systems have taken a quantum jump. The use of ‘brain’ rather than of ‘brute strength’ is the key feature of modern wars. The era of ‘smart soldiers’ with self-guiding ‘smart weapons’ is taking the war-making system into a new horizon of ‘invisible arena’.
Yes, wars of the future would be ‘invisible’ and fought in different dimensions and fronts. ‘Bio-warfare’ is one of the dimensions of a large canvas of ‘Invisible’ wars. VIRUS was the new soldier of an ‘unknown enemy’. It advances unchallenged and goes romping everything that resists its move forward. Tanks, guns, nukes and hordes of fighter aircraft are incapable of stopping its advance.
Coronavirus (Covid-19) has shown that it would have ‘No Front’ and ‘No Rear’. In almost two years, between January 2020 and May 2022, it had accounted for over 6 million people worldwide. The enemy was known but yet unknown for the nations to act against. The economies of the various nations were crippled and most nations are still panting to come out of it. More deadly viruses than corona are in the cradle of many a ‘bio-laboratories’ of the world.
Laser weapons, such as EMP (Electro-magnetic pulses) guns can cause havoc on the battlefield. Cyber warfare can damage command and control systems and also disrupt communications. It can interfere with the avionics of fighter aircraft and the guidance systems of missiles. Swarm technology has added a new dimension to the potential of the targets. Battlefields would be ruled by the quality of weapons and not quantity.
Emphasis on land warfare has shifted to ‘War by Other Means’, or even to ‘Non-Kinetic means’, where internal vulnerabilities of the enemy are exploited by using ‘Irregular Soldiers’. So, land wars will be limited to ‘Designer Conflicts’, where there will be no more monkey dancing by the armies across the borders
High-Tech-driven BVR weapon systems have brought in a qualitative change in the three areas of war-making. These are range, accuracy and lethality. This has impacted the doctrines of modern wars in two ways:
- Emphasis on Land warfare has shifted to WOM (War by other Means), or even to ‘Non-Kinetic means’, where you exploit internal vulnerabilities of the enemy by making use of ‘Irregular Soldiers’. Land war will therefore be limited to ‘Designer Conflicts’, where there would be no more MONKEY DANCING by the armies across the borders. At best, it will be confined to border skirmishes. Therefore, there was a need for the armed forces to be structured and reorganised to deal with this kind of land war. ‘Smart weapons’ and ‘irregular soldiers’ would play an important role in the ‘Designer Land Wars’ of the future. They would be protracted conflicts with ‘No Fronts’ and ‘No Rears’.
- Driven by High-tech and mass destruction weapon systems, mankind will upgrade from ‘Land Wars’ to ‘Space Wars’. Deep into the future, Battle Zones are going to be in the space. There will be a rush for land grabbing on the moon and other planets. The focus of the modern conventional war is shifting to SEAS & SPACE. Therefore, Naval forces and Airforce get priority over the land forces. Given this, the importance of STAND-ALONE weapon Systems attains significance. These are A-SAT, ANTI-MISSILE (S-400), Drones, Missiles; SWARM weapon systems, Aircraft careers, Nuclear Submarines, Laser Killers, long-range artillery with perfect accuracy and deadly lethality as well as modern aircraft.
The use of Artificial Intelligence and Early Warning systems, along with invisible means to cause unacceptable attrition to attackers would redefine land warfare to mere ‘border skirmishes’. Capture or defence of territory would no longer be the focus but the total annihilation of the enemy
Two Chinese Airforce Colonels, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiang Sui, wrote a handbook ‘Warfare Beyond Bounds’ in 1999, which caught the attention of the world and in 2004, it was published as ‘Unrestricted Warfare’. The book is a treatise on the use of unconventional means to defeat one’s adversary. This book emphasises that rather than focusing on direct military confrontation, it is advisable to use other means to defeat a technically superior adversary. It is a doctrine on the use of ‘invisible means’ to subdue one’s opponent. This is in line with what Sun Tzu had propagated centuries ago.
Deadly lethality, precise accuracy and large distances of emerging BVR weapon systems have enlarged the scope of combat zones with ‘No Front; No Rear’. It is not limited to geography and territory. Brawn is being replaced by brain, thus, changing the very profile of soldiers. Technical knowledge would be the key feature of future soldiers rather than physical robustness.
Principles of war, such as ‘concentration of forces’, ought to give way to ‘Dispersal’. Similarly, strong fixed defences would no longer be invincible. Mobility would be the key feature of ‘border defences’. Hitherto known doctrine of ‘boots on the ground’ to hold or deny territory to the enemy would give way to UGS (under-ground sensors). The use of AI (Artificial Intelligence) and EW (Early warning) systems, along with invisible means to cause unacceptable attrition to attackers would redefine land warfare to mere ‘border skirmishes’. Capture or defence of territory would no longer be the focus but the total annihilation of the enemy.
In conclusion, one would like to note what Alvin Toffler observed in his book, ‘War and Anti-War’. To quote him, “–If war was ever too serious a business to be left alone to Generals, then, today, it is all the more serious to leave it to uninformed, uninitiated and unaware, whether in uniform or otherwise–”
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
