In 1917, the Russian people were successful in toppling the Czarist regime only when the Army revolted against Czar Nicholas II. In fact, earlier in 1905, the people had failed to dislodge Nicholas for this very reason – because Nicholas enjoyed the Army’s support.
Similar events unfolded in 1789’s France. Many of the King’s Royal Guards ultimately defied allegiance to Louis XVI and joined the civil militia, aka the National Guard. Furthermore, the Parisian crowd had also assembled a cache of arms and ammunition and was prepared for an assault on the royal installations.
And in instances where history does not permit us to infer that the state’s armed forces are critical to a change of regime, then external state aid in the form of funds, logistics, munitions, and volunteers hold the key.
The case of South Vietnam’s insurgency in the mid-20th century when they received active support of China and North Vietnam through the Ho Chi Minh trail, and of course the 18th century big event of the American War of Independence when France and Spain overtly aided the pro-independence militia, are much well documented.
Finally, if none of these occur, then the defending state structure, with its security apparatus, must be exceedingly weak so as to crumble under an attack by insurgents. Take the case of Cuba in 1959 where Batista’s armed forces beset with corruption was more a liability than an asset for the dictatorial regime so that even a small ‘foco’ guerrilla group could dismantle Batista.
Similar events unfolded during the Arab Spring in the first decade of the 21st century. People’s movements, though important, succeed up to a limit. They ultimately overthrow the regime in contention only when the armed forces go against the ruling group.
Events that happened in Bangladesh in July, leading up to the August 5, 2024 could have been no different. The students-led people’s movement brought in disorder, inflated the internal entropy; the police committed their own follies by acting exceptionally bluntly at times and hence less professionally, but Sheikh Hasina left the country only when she lost support of the Army.
Though it was apparent, yet the confirmation came a couple of days later when The Daily Star reported on August 7 that the Bangladeshi Army had not agreed to provide support to the Awami League (AL) government, which left no option for Hasina but to abdicate.
Events that happened in Bangladesh in July, leading up to the August 5, 2024 could have been no different. The students-led people’s movement brought in disorder, inflated the internal entropy; the police committed their own follies and Sheikh Hasina left the country only when she lost support of the Army
After August 5, 2024 expectedly, the Bangladeshi Army took over, somewhat mirroring the set of events of 2007-08, when due to the agitations of the AL, then Bangladeshi government of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) had similarly collapsed.
By now, an interim government under the auspices of Nobel Laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus has been placed in action, which officially took oath on August 8. Interestingly, on August 11 itself, a Dhaka court acquitted Dr Yunus and 13 others in a case filed for alleged embezzlement from Grameen Telecom Workers’ profit participation fund (Prothom Alo, August 12, 2024).
The task of reconstructing Bangladesh by the interim government is onerous, no doubt. Moreover, the legitimacy of the interim government would always be under the scanner till free and fair elections are conducted in harmony with democratic principles and practice, and that too at the earliest.
In that context, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, along with members of the party’s standing committee, was scheduled to meet Professor Yunus on August 12. But it must be borne in mind that further elections in the country need to be all inclusive and not based on the dictates of a single party or a clique, for that matter.
The task of reconstructing Bangladesh by the interim government is onerous, no doubt. Moreover, the legitimacy of the interim government would always be under the scanner till free and fair elections are conducted in harmony with democratic principles and practice
However, restoring law and order appears to be the top most immediate priority for the interim government, especially in safeguarding the hapless minorities in the riot-afflicted country.
What presently is going on in Bangladesh is to a large extent a mobocracy. It is seemingly preposterous that rioters could give ultimatum to the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and force his resignation by the same day.
Similarly, Vice-Chancellor of Chittagong University resigned on August 11, again under the demand of the ‘students’ and ‘people’. As a matter of fact, many heads of different public organisations, including universities, Bangladesh Bank, and the Appellate Division of the Supreme Court have had to ‘resign’ from their posts (The Daily Star, August 12, 2024).
Nothing but anarchy continues in Bangladesh. A group of local madrasa students removed the nameplate of the “Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Expressway”, commonly known as the Dhaka-Mawa Expressway, at the Dhaleshwari toll plaza in Munshiganj. They replaced it with a banner reading “Father of the Nation Hazrat Ibrahim (AS) Expressway”. Maulana Obaidullah Kashemi, vice principal of Jamia Islamia Halimia Madhupur Madrasa and a Hefajat Islam leader, confirmed the act. This however, is one part of the spectrum.
The Minorities
At the other end, over 200 incidents of attacks on minorities, especially Hindus, have occurred in 52 out of 64 districts in Bangladesh. The house of celebrated Hindu musician Rahul Ananda – who last year met French President Emmanuel Macron when he visited Dhaka – was burnt. It was a heritage building which housed a number of musical instruments made by Ananda. In this ambience of genocidal fear, Hindus in groups, are guarding their villages during night.
Minority groups have raised their voice of dissent by assembling in Dhaka and have asked for equity and justice. On 10th August, Hindus openly enquired the leadership of Jamaat-i-Islami at the Dhakeswari Temple regarding the plight of their community in Bangladesh
Minority groups have raised their voice of dissent by assembling in Dhaka and have asked for equity and justice. On August 10, Hindus openly enquired the leadership of Jamaat-i-Islami at the Dhakeswari Temple regarding the plight of their community in Bangladesh. “This country belongs to all of us. I have no right to impose my religion on anyone else. There should be no issue of majority or minority here, we are all Bangladeshis, and as I have my rights, every other citizen, regardless of their religion, has equal rights,” said Jamaat-e-Islami leader Shafiqur Rahman (The Print, August 10, 2024).
Whether these words of Rahman would be followed in letter and spirit has to be seen in the coming future. In a country where Hindu population has consistently declined from 22 percent of the total population in 1947 to about 8 percent at present, speaks volumes for the treatment meted out to the minorities. Things surely appear bleak for the Hindus as they appear desperate to avoid this atmosphere of persecution.
For instance, Bangladesh’s daily Prothm Alo reported that several thousand Hindus gathered at the zero line along the Indian border near Uttar Gotamari village of Hatibandha in Lalmonirhat, to talk to the leadership from the Indian side, so that their issues could be addressed.
Loot, arson, murder, abduction, vandalism, are being systematically carried out against the Hindus. In this backdrop, the natural question is who all are conducting the reign of terror against the minorities, especially Hindus?
The continuous growth of Islamist fundamentalism and terrorism in Bangladesh started from the late 1980s onward. Interestingly, the ‘first strand’ of Islamist terrorism started off in Bangladesh by a local pir (saint) named Matiur Rahman
Islamist Fundamentalism in Bangladesh
An important aspect which needs to be highlighted is the continuous growth of Islamist fundamentalism and terrorism in Bangladesh from the late 1980s onward. Interestingly, the ‘first strand’ of Islamist terrorism started off in Bangladesh by a local pir (saint) named Matiur Rahman. He was a major in the Bangladesh Army till 1976. Thereafter he travelled to the Middle East. On his return to Bangladesh ten years later, he set up his terror network inside a madrasa, with a band of about 500 followers.
The ostensibly humble beginning of Islamist terrorism was thereafter followed by the formations of more serious and hard-core organisations like Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami Bangladesh, Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh, Allah’ar Dal, Shahadat-i-Hiqma, the globally connected Hizb-ut-Tahrir, and Ansarullah Bangla Team, among others.
All these groups advocated to establish Islamic rule through jihad. A pamphlet published by JMB read:
“Implement Allah’s laws, we will help you ……., otherwise the organisation will resort to kital (all-out war) for the establishment of the rules of Allah on His land”
It cannot be ruled out altogether that in case the country does not return to normalcy and anarchy keeps on amplifying with new zones of disturbance evolving in different regions, the army would not tighten its grip further
The New Terror
Notwithstanding several incidents of terrorism were carried out by these ‘first to fourth generation’ groups, opines Distinguished Professor Ali Riaz of Political Science at Illinois State University, and two trans-national ‘fifth generation’ militant/terrorist groups started gaining foothold in Bangladesh from 2015 onwards.
The groups are ominously, ‘inspired by and connected to’ Al-Qaeda in the Indian sub-continent and the Islamic State (IS) respectively. Professor Riaz further informs that between 2015 and 2016, the IS operatives conducted 24 attacks in which 42 percent were targeted against Hindus and Buddhists. Professor Riaz categorically mentions that the present Islamist fundamentalists in Bangladesh are part of global jihadi networks and brings in good amount of technical expertise in the cyber space.
Naturally, with a power vacuum in the democratic space being created with the abdication of AL government, and the consequent rise of outright fundamentalist elements in Bangladesh’s socio-political fabric, the global jihadis have received another perfect launch pad for their action in South Asia, along with that in Pakistan.
Bangladesh needs to frantically get hold of a semblance of order amidst the chaos. Else, any romanticism linked to the student-people uprising of July-Aug 2024 would go down in the annals of history as mere commotion, ruckus, and mob rule
Author Prakash Nanda in his piece for the Eurasia Times of August 6, 2024, has argued that the Bangladeshi Army is unlikely to go the Pakistani Army’s way in holding power for a substantial length of time. Looking back at the immediate history of 2007-8, that could be a prudent prediction. The fact that the Bangladeshi Army did not formally ‘usurp’ power through a coup, which it did in 1975, the possibility of it holding on the reins of authority for too long is perhaps expected with less probability.
However, it cannot be ruled out altogether that in case the country does not return to normalcy and anarchy keeps on amplifying with new zones of disturbance evolving in different regions, the army would not tighten its grip further.
The events in Bangladesh, as they are unfolding very fast and in the most non-linear fashion, would surely be closely watched. The upshot is very clear though. Notwithstanding the difference in perspectives and narratives, Bangladesh needs to frantically get hold of a semblance of order amidst the chaos. Else, any romanticism linked to the student-people uprising of July-Aug 2024 would go down in the annals of history as mere commotion, ruckus, and mob rule.
-The writer is an IOFS Civil Services officer, serving in the rank of Director to the Government of India
