Indian defence and strategic analysts must learn fast that the 21st Century wars are no longer fought with conventional military and ‘classic soldiers’, donned in olive green uniforms. Old-fashioned classic soldiering and large standing armies are losing their shine. Introduction of the ‘Agniveer’ concept in the Indian Army was the first step towards ‘contract soldiering’, which will drop curtains on large standing armies. It is an era of a Technical Oriented Lean & Mean Army (TOLMA) of the future. Contract soldiering will be the order of the day. Regular soldiering will be reduced to the bare minimum to retain core functional groups.
Heretofore known military belief that the army needs Boots on the Ground (BOG) to depict ground holding after the capture of land, no longer is appealing. It is pertinent to note that the BOG concept is no more the real description of victory. In a true sense, victory is the total annihilation of the war machine of the adversary. The spoils of war are not the land but the subjugation of the adversary, as a tributary state for the exploitation of its natural resources. Thus, annexation of territory or ‘Lebensraum’ is no longer the central aim of war but the destruction of the adversary’s will to stand up against your strength. Therefore, no need for BOG but SOG (Stooges on Ground), who would do your job better than employing own men. Have a close look around the Indian neighbourhood, in South Asia, and learn from what is happening?
Operations ‘regime change’ in Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and even Pakistan give graphic details of geopolitical conflicts of the 21st Century. SOG were doing better jobs there than employing hundreds of ‘own’ regular soldiers. Agents of national intel agencies have become the ‘frontline warriors’ of the war
Operations ‘regime change’ in Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and even Pakistan should give one graphic details of geopolitical conflicts of the 21st Century. SOG were doing better jobs there than employing hundreds of ‘own’ regular soldiers with accompanying problems of administration and resultant opposition by dissenting local elements. Agents of national intel agencies have become the ‘frontline warriors’ of the war.
Undoubtedly, it is an era of “wars without regular soldiers.” Military conflicts have come to be known as ‘Brain Force Wars’ in which dud soldiers and blind weaponry have no role. The era of ‘uniformed soldiers’, conducting ‘charge of the light brigade’, is fast going out of favour. Operations, such as ‘Rising Lion’ and ‘Lucky Drop’, should guide you as to what the emerging form of war is. In these two cases, the use of technology led to the elimination of top leadership without using a large number of soldiers.
AI, Robotics, DEWs (Lasers, A-Sat Killers, EMP), Genetic Engineering, biological viruses and chemical agents are the main weapons of modern wars. No more Traffic Jam of dud soldiers and tanks would be there on the battlefields! ‘Concentration’, as a principle of war, is now giving way to ‘qualitative dispersion’ of resources
AI, Robotics, DEWs (Lasers, A-Sat Killers, EMP), Genetic Engineering, biological viruses and chemical agents are the main weapons of modern wars. No more Traffic Jam of dud soldiers and tanks would be there on the battlefields! ‘Concentration’, as a principle of war, is now giving way to ‘qualitative dispersion’ of resources.
Necessity of ‘dispersion’ has risen due to three factors of weapon systems namely, computerised accuracy, distances beyond visual ranges and deadly lethality. ‘Eyes in the sky’ and radars facilitate target detection and acquisition, a simple job. Thus, anything visible to the naked or electronic eye would invite the wrath of the ‘smart, accurate & deadly’ weapon systems. Besides, no more Manned Fighter Jets would dominate the adversary’s skies. Further, a job, which in the earlier wars needed hundreds or thousands of soldiers (Boots on Ground) would be done by ‘Blasting Pagers’, ‘Exploding Vehicles’ or AI-guided drones.
The focus of war will be the adversary’s potential leaders. Consequently, long-range drones or UAVs would be used to render war machines useless by eliminating leaders. The single-shot killing of Al-Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in Kandahar, some years back, from a distance of 1,850 km, should tell you about the single-shot accuracy of emerging weaponry. During Operation Sindoor, the blasting of the nuclear command centre at Noor Khan Airbase by a terminally guided missile penetrated one square metre AC vent. It should be enough to grasp the role of AI and technology. What’s more, a Pakistani early warning aircraft was claimed to have been destroyed from a distance of 350 km.
The GPS spoofing of the Delhi Airport, when a computer glitch, due to a cyberattack by an unknown agency, led to chaos at the airport. Some 400 to 500 flights were stranded for 3 to 5 hours, and some incoming flights were diverted to Mumbai. Cyberattacks are secret intel operations, and they are part of a defeat mechanism
Long-range ‘single-shot bullets’ are joining the modern war, making an arsenal of war-machines to target military, political and intel leaders of the enemy. These single-shot drones were as small as bumble bees. They search and destroy their intended targets. They also go by the name of loitering munitions. It is, therefore, urgent to reorient one’s training institutes towards technology-aided ‘unrestricted wars’, with the principle of “Training the minds and not the physique’. Focus on ‘Brain Force wars’ and not on ‘Brute Force wars’ of the last century.
The words of Sun Tzu, an ancient Chinese philosopher, are more relevant today. To quote him: “To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.” The GPS spoofing of the Delhi Airport, when a computer glitch, due to a cyberattack by an unknown agency, led to chaos at the airport. Some 400 to 500 flights were stranded for 3 to 5 hours, and some incoming flights were diverted to Mumbai. Cyberattacks are secret intel operations, and they are part of a defeat mechanism.
The defeat mechanisms of adversaries are getting more technical and intelligence-oriented operations. The focus of war has shifted to covert operations. Look at what was happening around India! Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka have fallen to the movements orchestrated by foreign ‘intel warriors’. Even Pakistan has witnessed a silent coup, where the army has taken control of the nation with a dummy civil government. Undoubtedly, Pakistan’s military leader is doing a ‘good job’ for ‘His Master’s Voice’. What is the need for BOG, when the same thing is being better accomplished by the SOG? Attempts were also being made to do a ‘la-Bangladesh’ in India.
Disturbing developments do indicate some desperate attempts to destabilise the region. A strange incident came to light when the body of a special forces Commander, Arvelle Terrence Jackson, was found in the Westin Dhaka hotel, Bangladesh. It was followed by an ISI agent’s body in the Hotel Sheraton
There were rumours of a Global Deep State (GDS), a conglomerate of some businessmen, intel agents and bureaucrats, who were desperately trying this with some disgruntled Indians. ‘Game of the Foxes’ is on in the Indian neighbourhood. It seems India’s North East region is being targeted. Events in Manipur indicate how Kuki rebels were being supplied with weapons by some intelligence agencies.
Disturbing developments do indicate some desperate attempts to destabilise the region. A strange incident came to light when the body of a special forces Commander, Arvelle Terrence Jackson, was found in the Westin Dhaka hotel, Bangladesh. It was followed by an ISI agent’s body in the Hotel Sheraton.
The exploitation of internal vulnerabilities of a nation has become the prime method of waging wars. It is also called WOM (War by Other Means). Insurgencies and separatist movements are encouraged. ‘Toolkit projects’ were launched in India to spread dissatisfaction amongst populations, whether it was farmers’ agitation or anti-CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act). To create doubts and suspicion amongst people, false reports like the Henderson Brooks reports were published in foreign media.
Means employed by potential adversaries vary from faceless agents to dissatisfied citizens of the adversary. Loyalties can be purchased with money. Therefore, the use of ‘purchased agents’ as ‘irregular soldiers’ has become a new way of fighting a war. Thus, it is going to be an era of war with irregular soldiers, also known as ‘Unknown Soldiers/Gunmen’. Slowly and slowly, the world is heading towards shedding the ‘white elephant’ of the ‘Standing Army’. An era of lean and thin army of technical soldiers, boosted by part-time irregular soldiers, is on the horizon. It is, in essence, the ‘death of classical soldering’!
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
