Crimson-GeH Encircles India

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estern propaganda about China’s failing economy is similar to the Russian economic collapse predicted since February 2022. Russia emerged stronger and so will China. China’s exports to the Global South and BRICS countries in March 2024 reached an annual rate of US$ 1.6 trillion. If there was a $ 254 billion capital flight from China in 12 months through June, Indian industrialists reportedly sent out Rs 20,000 crore. The UN Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) projects in 2030, China’s share of global industrial production (which was 6% to America’s 25% and High-Income Countries’ 75% in 2000) will reach 45%, more than four times that of the US (11%) and more than all High-Income Countries combined (38%).

What was called China’s ‘String of Pearls’ surrounding India all these years is turning highly toxic. The CIA-engineered military-mullah regime in Bangladesh is attacking minorities and supporters of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League at will. Hindus are being forced to convert to Islam. The Attorney General has told the High Court that the regime wants the reference to ‘secularism’ in the Constitution deleted. Next would likely be the demand to impose Sharia. There have been calls in public rallies to establish Ghazwa-e-Hind (GeH). Chinese ships were the first foreign vessels to visit Bangladesh after the new regime took charge.

Three days before the November 7 deadline set by Adani Power, Bangladesh expedited payment of more than $800 million it owed to the company. Interestingly, electricity from Nepal has started flowing to Bangladesh through India’s power grid. Bangladesh is now routing its exports (including garments) not through India as earlier but through Pakistan by operationalising the Chittagong-Karachi Sea route.

Bangladesh has imported weapons, ammunition and explosives from Pakistan. It was reported in these columns earlier that a Dhaka University professor proposed a ‘Nuclear Treaty’ with Pakistan and to deploy Pakistan’s medium-range ‘Ghauri’ missiles in Bangladesh (Radicals in Bangladesh). Recent inputs indicate Chinese vessels have been bringing not only weapons to Bangladesh but also some type of fissile material. This has raised speculations about China planning to make Bangladesh a second Islamist nuclear state in the Subcontinent after Pakistan or arm terrorists with WMD-type capability (chaperoned by the Islamist regime) to attack India.

Active terrorist groups in Bangladesh include the Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT), Hizb-ut-Taiwind ((HT), Allah’r Dal, Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). In addition, terrorist groups proscribed by the Sheikh Hasiba government, on whom the Islamist regime has lifted restrictions, include the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islam Bangladesh (HuJI-B), Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB), Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Purba Banglar Communist Party (PBCP), Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS), Islamic State/ISIS, Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). Erstwhile inactive terrorist groups that would likely be encouraged to join GeH include Hizb-e-Abu Omar (HAO), Biplobi Communist Party (BCP), Gono Mukti Fauj (GMF), Purba Banglar Sarabahara Party (PBSP), Jasad Gono Bahini (JGP), Hikmat-ul-Jihad and Ahle Hadith Andolan Bangladesh (AHAB).

Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HT) is a transnational Islamist organisation having links with the Muslim population in multiple countries including India (Ghazwa-e-hind poster). HT aims for a Global Islamist Caliphate under Sharia; similar to the Taliban, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and affiliated groups. The TTP and Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB) Group have called for GeH since April 2024. TTP has intensified operations in Pakistan and given a two-month ultimatum to Pakistani security forces to resign their jobs. Talibanisation of Pakistan and Bangladesh is a grave security threat to India’s national security.

Chinese ships were the first foreign vessels to visit Bangladesh after the new regime took charge. In this CIA-engineered military-mullah regime, the minorities are under attack. Hindus are being forced to convert to Islam. The Attorney General has told the High Court that the government wants the reference to ‘secularism’ in the Constitution deleted

Nepal has contracted a Chinese company to print Nepalese currency notes with maps of Nepal that show areas of India as Nepal’s territory. India pushed Nepal into China’s lap by sealing the border between the two countries for months in 2015 – the ill-conceived ‘big brother’ plan of NSA Ajit Doval. Nepalese PM KP Sharma Oli is making his first foreign visit to Beijing in his third premiership commencing December 2. Aside from accelerating BRI projects, Oli is to propose an expressway connecting China with India through Nepal, the significance of which for quick mobilisation of PLA (when needed) should not be lost. Nepal has allowed exploration by China in the Terai region bordering India.

Beijing has ensured Kathmandu will continue to have a communist government or a communist-supported government. Nepal’s Muslim population is over 12.9 lakh already and Pakistan’s ISI has deep influence in Nepal. India’s Agniveer scheme denies recruitment of Nepalese, breaking the decades-old bond between the armies of India and Nepal. The Indian Army Chief is visiting Nepal shortly but there is no scope of reverting to regular recruitment with Defence Minister Rajnath Singh lying in Parliament that the Agniveer scheme was implemented after consulting 158 organisations.

American mercenaries are assisting anti-government forces in Myanmar. According to news reports, India has invited anti-government forces leaders in Myanmar for talks. There is nothing wrong in keeping multiple channels open, but where was the need to publicise it; false sense of bravado, especially at a time when the situation in Manipur has been bungled by the Centre and the State government? General Min Aung Hliang, Myanmar’s military government chief visited China recently. China has proposed peace talks if all parties agree. This may not work out but China will eventually get its BRI, including the deep-water port at Kyaukpyu, through Myanmar. China’s long-term plans can be gauged from Chinese President Xi Jinping inaugurating South America’s first Chinese-funded $3.5 billion deep-water Cosco Shipping Port in Peru recently.

American mercenaries are assisting anti-government forces in Myanmar. According to news reports, India has invited leaders of anti-government forces in Myanmar for talks. There is nothing wrong with keeping multiple channels open, but why publicise it; false sense of bravado, especially when the situation in Manipur is not peaceful

Pakistan continues its proxy war on India. PLA is present in civilian garb in Chinese projects in Pakistan, as well as about a brigade strength in Gilgit-Baltistan to guard Chinese movement along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). With the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) targeting Chinese nationals, more PLA presence can be expected in Pakistan. As Pakistan loses more control to Afghanistan-based terrorist organisations, terrorist attacks in India would likely go up, given that India’s political hierarchy is shy of attacking terrorist bases across the border.

Maldives President Mohammad Muizzu visited India in October this year. Both countries agreed to chart a new Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership. Muizzu thanked India for the emergency financial assistance, the decision to extend $400 million in financial support and INR 30 billion as a bilateral currency swap agreement. Maldives’ engagement with China, includes signing memorandums of understanding (MoUs) on strategic cooperation and a port development project during Muizzu’s visit to China in January 2024. Also in January 2024, Maldives signed a $37 million deal with Turkey to import Bayraktar TB2 drones to patrol its EEZ, which Turkey supplied in quick time.

In March 2024, Muizzu announced Maldives would not renew an agreement with India to conduct hydrographic surveys. This was days after a Chinese research vessel spent about a week around Male and more than a month outside Maldives’ EEZ. Muizzu’s visit to India does signal a reset in bilateral relations but at the same time, it would be naïve to assume that Chinese naval and hydrographic activities would reduce in and around Maldives. China’s influence in Maldives would keep growing and so would Muizzu’s pro-China tilt.  Maldives youth have been going for arms training with Pakistan-based terrorist organisations, and ISIS and Al Qaeda have managed to influence the Maldivian youth population to join their ranks.

The swearing-in of Marxist Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the President of Sri Lanka on September 23, 2024, followed by his Marxist-Leninist political party Janatha Vimukhti Peramuna (JVP) securing two-third majority in Parliament in November, is a bonanza for Beijing. The JVP, a fringe communist party, had fought two armed wars against security forces.

Maldives President Mohammad Muizzu’s visit to India does signal a reset in bilateral relations. China’s influence in Maldives would keep growing and so would Muizzu’s pro-China tilt. Maldives youth have been going for arms training with Pakistan-based terrorist organisations, and ISIS and Al Qaeda have influenced the Maldivian youth population to join their ranks

China’s development projects ride on huge concessional loans on such high rates of interest that eventually require a waiver which comes with a strategic price. Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port was officially transferred to China for 99 years in July 2017. Chinese nuclear submarines and warships did not dock in the Sri Lanka Port Authority (SLPA) area in Colombo but at the Colombo South Container Terminal (CSCT), a deep-water facility built, controlled and run by China through an aid project. With the JVP in power, the periodicity of Chinese spy/research ships visiting Sri Lanka may go up.

Finally, a report by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) released in September 2024 states that India is facing a disparate range of terror threats, most significantly from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or Al-Qaeda-linked groups active in and around Jammu and Kashmir. But India is now encircled by a belt of Crimson and GeH threatening its national security; which would be used by China, radical Islamist forces and regional/global players inimical to India whether overt or covert.