Space has become an enormously important facet of our daily life. The increasing utility and critical need for space-based services have made it a rapidly-growing economic and technological arena. Space capabilities now symbolise a nation-state’s growing economic power. Innovation and disruptive technologies are now characterising the growth of the space industry, both in the private and public sectors. In all this, play the most important role as space has become an arena of competition for power and influence.
Traditionally, military uses of space technologies have revolved around advanced communication, precise navigation, improved Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, and meteorology. Further developments have enabled these technologies to be used in Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD), advanced sensors, early warning systems, and anti-satellite (ASAT) systems.
The 1991 Gulf War is generally seen as the first Space War as satellites, both commercial and military, played a major role in C4ISR in the campaign. Since then, all major powers have invested significantly in national military space capabilities. The United States has gone a step further to create its fifth military service, the Space Force. The militarisation of space has now accelerated.
China’s space capabilities have grown by leaps and bounds in the last two decades. The PLA recognised the critical importance of space from its close study of the 1991 Gulf War. More importantly, the Chinese national leadership and the CCP have identified Space as a critical domain that China needs to master from the perspectives of prestige, status, military power, space control, and the larger dimension of its global power ambitions.
A jolt to the world
China’s 2003 Shenzhou V launch that created its first human space flight came as a jolt to the world as China demonstrated its rapid developments in space technology and capability. Since then, China has continued to achieve major milestones in its space capability. China’s military-oriented space applications have evolved with a clear focus on achieving varied capabilities to ensure its freedom of operations in space. While it continued to expand its space launch rocketry and satellite design and production to compete aggressively in the global space market, it has remained focused on achieving offensive and defensive capabilities. With its first ASAT test in 2007, it demonstrated its capability towards space control.
As many Space technologies can serve both civilian and military purposes, China has evolved its strategy of military-civil fusion to emphasise the use of dual-use technologies
Since 2005, China has continued to increase the number of its space launches and deploy its satellites for a wide variety of civil, military and dual-use applications. China believes in Space as a domain of warfare and hence, it has focused on modernising its capabilities to enhance its counter-space capabilities. China’s space programme is managed by the PLA since the Deng era, both for civilian and military interests. This includes the strengthening of the science and technology sector, growing international relationships, and modernisation of the military.
The 2015 restructuring of the military and the creation of the Space Support Force (SSF), have accelerated advances in the research and development of Space systems and Space-related technology. As many Space technologies can serve both civilian and military purposes, China has evolved its strategy of military-civil fusion to emphasise the use of dual-use technologies. This has enabled the SSF to work with universities, and civil as well as commercial research establishments, and use dual-use technologies, policies and organisations for military benefit.
Space launches doubled
China’s massive T-shaped space station is expected to be fully operational by the latter half of this year. Three Taikonauts will spend six months in the space station, which will orbit 340-450 km above the Earth
The recent white paper (January 2022) makes it clear that China aims to become a global space power, second to none. In the last 10 years, China has doubled its launches per year and the number of satellites it orbits. As of January 2022, China orbits 499 active satellites, second only to the US. China made a record 55 Space launches in 2021. It plans to do even better in 2022 with 60 Space launches.
From 2016 to December 2021, China completed 207 launch missions, including 183 by the Long March carrier rocket series. The total launch attempts exceeded 400. China has invested significantly to expand its series of rocket launchers ranging from light-lift (<2 tons) to heavy-lift (>50 tons), including launches from sea-based platforms. The number of launches planned for 2022 to 2030 is incredibly high.
Tiangong space station
Beginning with its first manned space flight in 2003, China has ramped up its manned space flights, combined with aggressive expansion of its ventures for deep-space exploration, including Moon and Mars ventures. These capabilities are driven not only by prestige and status factors but more by geopolitical/astropolitical concerns. After having launched two smaller experimental space stations and deorbited them, China has now begun to build its full-fledged Space station all by itself.
This is in direct competition with the US-led International Space Station (ISS) venture. In the aftermath of the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, Russia, a founder of the ISS, is out of the next generation ISS and now it is a moot point whether Russia would join hands with China.
China launched the first module Tianhe of its Space station in May 2021. Six crewed missions to complete the construction of the Space station Tiangong (Heavenly Palace) are part of the 60 launches planned for 2022. The Chinese Manned Space Agency (CMSA) is constructing the Space station, which will orbit 340-450 km above the Earth. Consisting of three modules, the massive T-shaped space station is expected to be fully operational by the latter half of the year when three Chinese astronauts (called Taikonauts) will spend six months in the Space station. The Space station will be a major achievement that signals China’s Space capability on par with the USA.
35-satellite constellation: Beidou 3
In July 2021, China completed the full deployment of its global navigation satellite system, Beidou 3. This 35-satellite constellation provides high accuracy positioning, navigation, and timing services and is in direct competition with the American GPS and EU’s Galileo. Beidou 3 has already achieved a revenue of $ 200 billion. As it expands its usage and acceptance across the world, its revenue is likely to touch $ 1 trillion by 2030. Beidou 3 is intimately integrated with the Belt and Road Initiative projects. Beidou’s higher level of accuracy and its combination with its over 63 spy satellites enables the PLA to track every object of interest in the Asia-Pacific, more particularly in the Indo-Pacific. China’s global leadership in 5G communications, its breakthroughs in Quantum communications, and the GNSS form its strategic pillars.
China has completed the deployment of its global navigation satellite system, Beidou 3. It provides high accuracy positioning, navigation, and timing services and is in direct competition with the American GPS and EU’s Galileo
China is today an ISR powerhouse. As of January 2022, China’s ISR fleet contained more than 250 systems – a quantity second only to the US. PLA now owns and operates about half of the world’s ISR systems, most of which support monitoring, tracking, and targeting of the US and allies’ forces worldwide. Its counter-space weapons include ground-based ASAT weapons that can target satellites not only in LEO orbits but can also reach MEO and GEO orbits. This is augmented by Space-based non-kinetic weapons that use directed energy, Cyber, EW, Jamming, and Rendezvous Proximity Operations (RPO). On July 21 in 2021, China shocked the world by carrying out a ‘fractional orbital launch of an ICBM with a hypersonic glide vehicle. The test demonstrated the greatest distance flown (approx. 40000 km) and longest flight time ( 100+ minutes) of any Chinese land-attack weapons system to date.
China’s space strategy and its accelerated development are also driven by its apprehension of the US intentions and strategies to dominate the Cislunar space and regulate the others. Its plans for lunar missions, manned space missions, and deep space explorations are rooted in the hard realism of geopolitics. Protection of its space assets and ensuring its freedom of operations in Space form the critical elements of PLA’s counter-space and Space control strategies.
The rapid growth in China’s Space capabilities and its articulated ambitions are of significant importance to India’s Space security and the protection of its national interests. What is more important is to recognise the fact that China’s Space strategy is driven by the PLA and it works synergistically with civil space institutions, academia, universities, and industries. Its strategy of ‘Military-Civil’ fusion enables this integration.
–The writer is a former Deputy Chief of Integrated Staff at IDS. He is now the President of The Peninsula Foundation at Chennai. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
