The Romans said, “If you want peace, prepare for war.” But the Middle East seems to have found itself obsessed with this aphorism. In the region, peace is essentially a luxury – like finding water in the desert. Since the beginning of the Cold War, the Middle East has been the nerve centre of the global geopolitical tussle between the US and the Soviet Union. With the demise of the Cold War the canvas of power games widened, bringing in the process, more players into the fold – both state and non-state actors.
It remained more or less peaceful for close to two decades and in the process, saw the signing of the Abraham Accords of 2020. However, the veneer of calm was shattered with the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. To make matters worse, Hezbollah, the powerful militant organisation-cum-political party, also launched rocket strikes against Israel’s northern borders.
The result – Israel retaliated heavily. After more than a year, the war has widened with Israel launching an invasion of Lebanon along its southern borders starting from August – close to half a million people have been displaced and thousands have been killed. But unlike Israel’s war against Hamas, its military offensive against Hezbollah has been largely effective with the severe depletion of the operational capability of the militant organisation on one hand and top leaders of the group being taken out by Israel one by one.
However, after close to six months of relentless fighting, the global community via intense diplomatic efforts managed to negotiate a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel at last.
Unlike Israel’s war against Hamas, its military offensive against Hezbollah has been largely effective with the severe depletion of the operational capability of the militant organisation, and top leaders of the group being taken out by Israel one by one
Nature of the Ceasefire
The ceasefire was struck between Israel and Hezbollah with the US, Egypt and Qatar playing a crucial role. The ceasefire requires, on the part of Hezbollah, to desist from launching missiles, rockets and other projectiles inside Israel. In return, Israel has agreed to withdraw from southern Lebanon its troops which entered the zone to eliminate Hezbollah’s war-making and war-waging capabilities on one hand and cut off the group’s core leadership.
The deal also allows the Lebanese government, which is ostensibly one of the many players in a country like Lebanon to deploy troops of the Lebanese army to guard its southern frontier with Israel.
Another aspect of the ceasefire deal is that it largely fulfils Israel’s aim of allowing safe passage for the citizens of its northern communities who fled the region following a daily barrage of rocket and other projectile attacks on them since the beginning of the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza a year ago.
A key aspect of the deal is that it doesn’t cover Gaza, thereby providing a much-needed breather to Israel which in recent months had seen its military, political and economic resources being stretched to its limits. This ceasefire will largely ensure, according to foreign policy and military experts, an opportunity for Israel to focus its strategies and operations against Hamas in the already battered Gaza Strip which lies in the southern and south-western part of Israel.
The ceasefire has been marked by a few violations with both sides blaming the other for the violation. Hope common sense prevails. One sticking point that continues to remain in this complex geopolitical puzzle is: What will become of Gaza?
Need for a New Accord
However, the ceasefire has been marked by a few violations with both sides blaming the other for its violation. Nevertheless, it can be widely expected that both stakeholders in the ceasefire will allow common sense to prevail and stop further hostilities. Having said that, one sticking point that continues to remain in this complex geopolitical puzzle is this: What will become of Gaza?
Israel’s relentless and brutal military retaliation and subsequent invasion of Gaza has left the tiny enclave in ruins. Almost the whole of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been left homeless, battling food shortages, and disease amidst the daily threat of being buried under buildings thanks to Israel’s military campaign has made the enclave one of the most dangerous areas in the world today.
Peace diplomacy must become a fulcrum of global politics in the Middle East with India taking the initiative to play a leading role in negotiating what can be called the Abraham Accords 2.0 to restore a modicum of normalcy in the Middle East
However, Israel has all the right to defend itself and if anybody is to be blamed for the mess in the enclave it is Hamas. The external affairs minister of India has made it very clear time and again that what happened on October 7 in Israel was an ‘act of terrorism’ and there can never be any negotiation with terrorists and terror groups like Hamas.
In light of such a heart-wrenching yet complex situation, alternative forms of global negotiation must be undertaken. Global state and non-state actors must find ways to put an end to the war while at the same time assuaging Israel’s security concerns emanating from Hamas.
The UN must, under the aegis of its 1267 sanctions committee with the assistance of the FATF or the Financial Action Task Force, prosecute Hamas’ leaders and if necessary countries who are actively funding the terror organisation to pursue their devious geopolitical goals.
At the same time, peace diplomacy must become a fulcrum of global politics in the Middle East with India taking the initiative to play a leading role in negotiating what can be called the Abraham Accords 2.0 to restore a modicum of normalcy in the Middle East.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
